Friday, October 19, 2012
As reported yesterday, the Real Clear Politics average of state polls puts Gov. Romney ahead in the Electoral College, 206-201. But I learned on the CBS Evening News last night that the network's experts put President Obama at 255 electoral votes- only fifteen short of victory.
I know what RCP's estimate is based on. But what is the basis of CBS's estimate? Wishful thinking?
Today's Gallup tracking poll has Gov. Romney losing one point of his lead among likely voters. He's now ahead of the president by "only" six points instead of seven- 51%-45%.
The Susquahanna Poll shows Romney leading the president 50% to 46% in solid blue Pennsylvania.
New Rasmussen polls also show the Republican nominee with a three point lead in Virginia, and a five point lead in Florida. Rasmussen also has Romney up by three points in North Carolina.
Rasmussen does put the president ahead in the Electoral College- but only by 237-235, with 66 electoral votes up for grabs.
Lee Iococca- a registered independent with a record of consistently supporting Democrats- has endorsed Romney. So has the Orlando Sentinel, which supported Mr. Obama four years ago.
And perhaps most devastating of all for the president's hopes of a second term, after the second debate- widely perceived as at least a marginal victory for Mr. Obama- the Pew Research Center reports that for the first time Gov. Romney's favorable ratings are higher than his.
Like I say, I don't know what CBS is basing its estimate on. But it doesn't appear to be the polls.
Meanwhile, at the annual Al Smith Dinner in New York yesterday, President Obama joked that he was going shopping at some Mid-Town stores- whereas Gov. Romney was going shopping FOR some mid-town stores. Romney replied that he prepared for his victory in the first debate by abstaining from alcohol for 65 years, and attacking every straw man he saw. "Big Bird never new what hit him," the Republican candidate said.