02 November, 2012
Election Day Minus Four: It doesn't get much tighter
President Obama has a 0.3% lead in the RCP average of the polls today. It should be noted that this average still does not include Gallup, which "tentatively" plans to release its final poll Monday after suspending operations due to the effects of Superstorm Sandy. Gallup has been consistently more favorable to Romney of late than other polls. As a result, what looks like a slight Obama surge is at least in part probably a statistical glitch.
Rasmussen and Fox News have the race tied. The ABC News/Washington Post poll has the president up by one percent. The RCP average in Ohio has POTUS up by 2.3%.
I still think that the electorate will break one way or the other in the next 48 hours. If not, it will all come down to the "ground game." Both campaigns have high-tech operations whose details I may go into after the election. Suffice it to say that as a veteran of many old-fashioned campaigns, I"m floored.
Both sides have formidable election day operations in Ohio, where turnout is expected to favor Romney even though Obama leads in the polls.
HT: Real Clear Politics