Sunday, November 04, 2012

Election Day Plus Two: Revenge against whom?


POTUS seems to have forgotten who has been minding the store the past four years. When a crowd in Springfield, Ohio, started to boo his mention of Mitt Romney, Mr. Obama replied, "No, no, no. Don't boo. Vote. Voting is the best revenge.”

Revenge?

This morning I attended Mitt Romney's rally here in Des Moines, where the Republican candidate replied- as he has several times since the president's odd comment, "Don't vote for revenge. Vote for love of country."

The crowd at Hy-Vee Hall was large, loud and enthusiastic. The Republican party is motivated here in Iowa, and I suspect in the rest of the country as well.

Obnoxious atheist and unfunny comedian Bill Maher has a word of warning for Romney supporters: "Black people know who you are and they will come for you." Nice.

The pentultimate Real Clear Politics average of the polls gives Obama 45.7% of the national popular vote, and Romney 45.3%. In the highly unlikely event that all of the states- the polls in a great many cases being within the margin of error- vote as the RCP average indicates, President Obama would be re-elected with an electoral vote of 290-248.

On the other hand, political columnist Michael Barone of the Washington Examiner- on the basis of a state-by-state analysis which I believe, on the whole, to be reasonable- predicts a 315-223 Romney victory in the Electoral College.

The Obama campaign is making a big deal of Project Narwhal, an election day operation said to be unprecidented in American history. The Romney campaign answers with Project Orca- named after the narwahl's natural predator- which involves a technological approach which it believes will make the difference. Whether Narwhal or Orca prevail will probably tell the story, especially in places like Ohio.

It's that close. It will be the relative strength of the election day operations and voter turnout which will decide who wins.

Twenty-one of the nation's leading newspapers which endorsed Barack Obama four years ago have switched this year to Mitt Romney: endorse Romney for president in 2012. They include:
•Billings Gazette
•The Columbian
•The Daily Herald
•Daily News (L.A.)
•Daily Tribune
•Des Moines Register
•The Florida Times-Union (which split between McCain & Obama in ’08)
•Florida Today
•Fort Worth Star-Telegram
•Houston Chronicle
•Naples Daily News
•New York Daily News
•New York Observer
•Newsday
•Orlando Sentinel
•Pensacola News Journal
•Press-Telegram (L.A.)
•Reno Gazette-Journal
•South Florida Sun Sentinel
•The Tennessean
•Wisconsin State Journal

The final Michigan Poll by Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) gives Romney 46.86%, Obama 46.24%, Another candidate 4.94%, and Undecided 1.96%- a statistical dead heat in a state where despite his roots Romney should not even be competitive. The same could be said of Pennsylvania, where a Pittsburg Tribune-Review poll also showed a dead heat, with Romney and the president at 47% each.

Here in Iowa, the final Des Moines Register Iowa Poll gives the president a five-point lead. In 2008, he had a 17 point lead in the last Iowa Poll- but carried the state two days later by only nine points.

Five points is within range of a good ground game. Hopefully, Tuesday will be the Day of the Orca.

HT: Real Clear Politics
       Drudge

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