The consensus shows a 4-to-8 point Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Polls in Florida and North Carolina show somewhere between a tie and a four-point Clinton lead. Ohio and Iowa are essentially tied. Voters in my adopted state are somewhat- how should I say this?- eccentric. So very little that could happen in Iowa would surprise me. But I would be surprised if Trump ends up carrying Ohio.
I expect Trump to be as bad or worse in the second debate as he was Monday. He's Donald Trump. He simply can't help himself. And I would not be surprised, especially if by early next week it becomes clear that he's taken a substantial hit as a result of the debate if he cancels the other debates. He's already whining about registered Republican Lester Holt's firm, objective and masterful moderation of Monday night's debate, in which Holt simply didn't let Trump get away with the nonstop lying, bullying, overtalking his opponent and monopolizing her time as well as his own which the wimpy moderators of the Republican debates failed to challenge.
If Holt seemed to "pick on" Trump, it's because- as usual- Trump displayed all the accountability, truthfulness and impulse control of a seven-year-old juvenile delinquent with ADHD.
If a moderator does a halfway decent job in a debate in which Trump is a participant, he or she is going to spend a great percentage of the evening trying to keep Trump from turning the debate into a farce. And Trump may well decide that he just can't afford to spend another evening playing by the same rules as his opponent. In any event, the experience of being seen by the nation for the immature, dishonest braggart he is seems to have checked his surge in the polls and to be in the process of returning Hillary to a comfortable lead.
Graphic by DonkeyHotey