No, Trump won't be elected. But his nomination would elect Hillary.

Donald Trump and Hillary continue to run neck-and-neck in the polls. And now, a new poll shows that up to 20% of Democrats would defect and vote for Trump. "Trump could win it all," the headline tells us. 

Not so fast. First, this fails to take into account the number of people who usually vote Republican- myself being an example- who would under no circumstances vote for Trump.

It's not that we would necessarily vote for Hillary or even for Jim Webb, whose positions on social issues are crazy Left despite his common sense on security and defense issues.  Some of us might.  Faced with disenfranchisement otherwise, Webb would tempt some of us  But for the most part, it's just that Trump won't be getting our votes. And that will go a long way toward offsetting that 20% of Democrats even if all things were to remain equal until November.

But they won't. As we learn anew, it seems, every election cycle, the Democrats are very, very good at mud-slinging. We saw that in the distortions and outright lies they pitched in their ad campaigns against Mitt Romney four years ago and Joni Ernst here in Iowa two years ago. The variable in this case, though, is crucial: with Trump, they won't have to lie. Donald Trump is not simply an unqualified blowhard. He's a phony. He's the archetype of everything his supporters are rebelling against. And all the Democrats have to do to beat him soundly is to make sure the voters get to know him.

When the American people get to understand who this guy actually is his support will collapse like a house of cards in a hurricane.  Just watch. And be assured that the Democratic mud-slinging machine will be no less energetic because it will be slinging the simple truth rather than mud.

All one has to do  to realize who Trump really is is to read his book, The Art of the Deal. The clown goes on and on about his great hero- Roy Cohn! Trump reminisces  about his career as a literal schoolyard bully, and his punching a second-grade music teacher because he didn't think the teacher knew anything about music!

He's always been a bully. He's always been a braggart. He's always been a clown. And he's not going to be able to conceal that in the Fall campaign.

This is not the kind of man Americans look up to. 
They are not going to elect somebody to the Oval Office whose life story raises issues of psychopathy! Once they get to understand who this guy actually is, his legions of admirers will drop him like the proverbial hot potato.

No, Trump's actual election as president- as frightening a prospect is that is for anybody who actually knows anything about him- isn't what scares me. What scares me is that unless something changes in between now and the Republican convention, on the morning of November 9 we will almost certainly awaken to headlines telling us that Hillary Clinton has been elected in a historic landslide; that the Democrats have captured both houses of Congress and a large number of governor's mansions and state legislatures, and that what probably is literally the last chance to bring the Supreme Court under control and modify or repeal Roe v. Wade, Obergefell v. Hodges, Cruzan v. Director and all the other extra-Constitutional nonsense the Court has inflicted on us will be lost forever.

I still believe that it will be Hillary Trump loses to because I can't see the Obama DOJ letting her be indicted.  But Trump will still lose if Martin O'Malley or Joe Biden and possibly even Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee.Hillary is a candidate who can be  every bit as mean as Trump can, and has even better material to work with than he would. It would be the ugliest and least becoming campaign in modern history, but as bad as Hillary is, Trump makes her look absolutely presidential by comparison. And while Joe Biden is at least as big a clown as Trump is, he's an experienced and at least marginally competent clown. Unlike Trump, he has some vague idea what he's talking about when he discusses policy. When the debates come, even Biden isn't going to let Trump change the subject when specifics come up like he usually does. And when it comes to discussing specifics, Trump can't help but reveal his utter and total ignorance.

What scares me is that this may well literally be America's last chance- and we're about to blow it because people want to throw a temper tantrum.

What worries me is that unless something changes, the very people who are supporting Trump now will be wailing and demanding to be told why somebody didn't warn them.

Well, some of us are trying. And in just a few short months, it will be too late.

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