Skip to main content

No, Trump won't be elected. But his nomination would elect Hillary.

Donald Trump and Hillary continue to run neck-and-neck in the polls. And now, a new poll shows that up to 20% of Democrats would defect and vote for Trump. "Trump could win it all," the headline tells us. 

Not so fast. First, this fails to take into account the number of people who usually vote Republican- myself being an example- who would under no circumstances vote for Trump.

It's not that we would necessarily vote for Hillary or even for Jim Webb, whose positions on social issues are crazy Left despite his common sense on security and defense issues.  Some of us might.  Faced with disenfranchisement otherwise, Webb would tempt some of us  But for the most part, it's just that Trump won't be getting our votes. And that will go a long way toward offsetting that 20% of Democrats even if all things were to remain equal until November.

But they won't. As we learn anew, it seems, every election cycle, the Democrats are very, very good at mud-slinging. We saw that in the distortions and outright lies they pitched in their ad campaigns against Mitt Romney four years ago and Joni Ernst here in Iowa two years ago. The variable in this case, though, is crucial: with Trump, they won't have to lie. Donald Trump is not simply an unqualified blowhard. He's a phony. He's the archetype of everything his supporters are rebelling against. And all the Democrats have to do to beat him soundly is to make sure the voters get to know him.

When the American people get to understand who this guy actually is his support will collapse like a house of cards in a hurricane.  Just watch. And be assured that the Democratic mud-slinging machine will be no less energetic because it will be slinging the simple truth rather than mud.

All one has to do  to realize who Trump really is is to read his book, The Art of the Deal. The clown goes on and on about his great hero- Roy Cohn! Trump reminisces  about his career as a literal schoolyard bully, and his punching a second-grade music teacher because he didn't think the teacher knew anything about music!

He's always been a bully. He's always been a braggart. He's always been a clown. And he's not going to be able to conceal that in the Fall campaign.

This is not the kind of man Americans look up to. 
They are not going to elect somebody to the Oval Office whose life story raises issues of psychopathy! Once they get to understand who this guy actually is, his legions of admirers will drop him like the proverbial hot potato.

No, Trump's actual election as president- as frightening a prospect is that is for anybody who actually knows anything about him- isn't what scares me. What scares me is that unless something changes in between now and the Republican convention, on the morning of November 9 we will almost certainly awaken to headlines telling us that Hillary Clinton has been elected in a historic landslide; that the Democrats have captured both houses of Congress and a large number of governor's mansions and state legislatures, and that what probably is literally the last chance to bring the Supreme Court under control and modify or repeal Roe v. Wade, Obergefell v. Hodges, Cruzan v. Director and all the other extra-Constitutional nonsense the Court has inflicted on us will be lost forever.

I still believe that it will be Hillary Trump loses to because I can't see the Obama DOJ letting her be indicted.  But Trump will still lose if Martin O'Malley or Joe Biden and possibly even Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee.Hillary is a candidate who can be  every bit as mean as Trump can, and has even better material to work with than he would. It would be the ugliest and least becoming campaign in modern history, but as bad as Hillary is, Trump makes her look absolutely presidential by comparison. And while Joe Biden is at least as big a clown as Trump is, he's an experienced and at least marginally competent clown. Unlike Trump, he has some vague idea what he's talking about when he discusses policy. When the debates come, even Biden isn't going to let Trump change the subject when specifics come up like he usually does. And when it comes to discussing specifics, Trump can't help but reveal his utter and total ignorance.

What scares me is that this may well literally be America's last chance- and we're about to blow it because people want to throw a temper tantrum.

What worries me is that unless something changes, the very people who are supporting Trump now will be wailing and demanding to be told why somebody didn't warn them.

Well, some of us are trying. And in just a few short months, it will be too late.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Jan Chamberlain's rhetoric is too strong. But the stand she has taken is right.

I do not share the religion of Jan Chamberlain. I don't even pray to the same god. But I can't help but admire the integrity of the woman who quit the Mormon Tabernacle Choir rather than sing at Donald Trump's inauguration.

Ms. Chamberlain, like me, voted for Evan McMullin in November. Like me, she holds no brief for Hillary Clinton or her agenda. But she cannot, as she put it, "throw roses at Hitler."

As I've said before, comparing Trump to Hitler strikes me as harsh. I believe that Trump is a power-hungry narcissist who exhibits disturbing signs of psychopathy, like Hitler. Like Hitler, he has stigmatized  defenseless minorities- Muslims and undocumented aliens, rather than Jews- and made them scapegoats for the nation's troubles. Like Hitler, he has ridden a wave of irrational hatred and emotion to power. Like Hitler's, his agenda foreshadows disaster for the nation he has been chosen to lead.

But he's not going to set up death camps for Musli…

Neither Evan McMullin nor his movement are going away

Evan McMullin has devoted most of his post-college life- even to the point of foregoing marriage and a family- to fighting ISIS and al Qaeda and our nation's deadliest enemies as a clandestine officer for the CIA. He has done so at the risk of his life.

He has seen authoritarianism in action close-up. One of his main jobs overseas was to locate and facilitate the elimination of jihadist warlords. Evan McMullin knows authoritarians.

And when he looks at Donald Trump, what he sees is an authoritarian like the ones he fought overseas. He knows Donald Trump. After leaving the CIA he served as policy director for the Republican majority in the United States House of Representatives. He tells about his first encounter with The Donald in that role in this opinion piece he wrote for today's New York Times.

In fact, when Mitt Romney and Tom Coburn and all the others who were recruited to run as a conservative third-party candidate against Trump and Hillary Clinton backed out,  McMulli…

Huzzah! Once again, 45 does something majorly right!

First. he appointed Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, and now 45 has- at long last- initiated a sensible space policy, with a plan to promote a "rapid and affordable" return to the moon carried out by private enterprise by 2020.  Afterward, it will be onward to Mars and beyond.

This is a great idea for three reasons. First, private enterprise is the future of space exploration, and as far as I know we will be the first spacefaring nation to put most of its eggs in that basket. Second, it's nice to have eggs! Since the Obama administration canceled the Constellation program to develop the Ares booster and the Orion crew vehicle (though it subsequently reinstated the Orion part of the program), the United States has been twiddling its thumbs while China has taken great leaps toward the moon and other countries- including Russia, India, and Japan- have to various degrees intensified their own space programs. It would be both tragic and foolhardy for the nation which first…