Why the polls are wrong so much

As we all await the results from New Hampshire tonight here's an interesting article by George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures on why polls don't seem to accurately predict elections anymore.

Also, why Donald Trump and Democrats don't get to claim that somebody must have cheated just because the results of the election doesn't match the result of the polls.

This actually makes sense. We live in a much, much different world from the one we lived in when the classic polling models were developed, and it's only logical that they wouldn't work as well now as they used to.

I'll have this article in mind as I watch the returns tonight. Of course, the only New Hampshire poll I've seen that contains results from after Saturday's debate also contained results from before it, which could further louse things up.

It's too bad the Literary Digest isn't around anymore (that's a history geek joke).

HT: Real Clear World


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