Dream on, Chris Matthews! Dream on!

While watching the TV over lunch at Hy-Vee this afternoon I saw Chris Matthews and his remarkably clueless panel gush over Rudy Giuliani's strong lead (the leading alternatives are John McCain and Condi Rice) in the latest Gallup Poll for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination.

The general consensus was that Republicans might well be willing to put up with a pro-choice, socially liberal nominee in order to beat Hillary Clinton- she of the 43% "unfavorable" popularity rating.

And these people get paid to do political commentary?

The Gallup Poll does, of course, vindicate the statistically valid straw poll Patrick Ruffini is conducting on an ongoing basis at his blog. But my response to the Gallup organization remains the same as my response to Patrick's simliar result: support for Giuliani will prove to be much like Iowa snow. It can be overwhelming early in the year, burying everything in sight. But by the time folks go into the fields to begin attending to business, somehow it's no longer a factor.

No pro-choice, socially liberal Republican will survive Iowa and New Hampshire. Right now, Giuliani's strength among Republicans reflects their widespread respect for his handling of 9/11 and its aftermath as mayor of New York City. It would be interesting to see what percentage of those polled actually know Giuliani's positions on abortion and other hot-button social issues! My guess is that it's comparatively low- and that as his positions become more widely known, his support will rapidly melt away until there is nothing left of it.

Moreover, if the Democratic nominee is Hillary, it will certainly not take a candidate outside the Republican mainstream to defeat her. Further, if the Democrats really want to win, they'll bypass Hillary and go with Mark Warner, Evan Bayh or John Edwards.