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Election Day Minus Six: Uh-oh!

New polls out today indictate that the momentum somehow may have switched to President Obama.

A Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll shows the president leading in Virginia, Florida, and- of course- Ohio. And the RCP average now shows the race as a tie.

It isn't time to panic yet. A Roanoke College poll shows Romney up by five in Virginia. And Dick Morris thinks we're headed for a Romney landslide. A single day's bad polling may simply represent a glitch.

But if Romney's lead in the RCP average isn't back tomorrow, I'm going to start to worry.

HT: Real Clear Politics

A blessed Reformation Day

Today is Reformation Day, the anniversary of the day when Martin Luther posted his 95 Theses on the the door of the Castle Church in Wittenberg, thus beginning the Protestant Reformation.

The theses were propositions for theological debate, calling attention to abuses and problems in the teaching and practice of the Sixteenth Century Church. A few years ago, somebody came up with a new 95 Theses, aimed at the abuses and problems in today's Church. I commend them to your consideration:

1. When our Lord and Master Jesus Christ said “Repent,” He willed that the whole life of believers should be one of repentance.

2. To “repent” means to be contrite for one’s sins and to trust Jesus Christ and solely in His completed work for one’s forgiveness, life, and salvation.

3. Those who describe the Christian life as purpose-driven deny true repentance, confuse the Law and the Gospel, and obscure the merits of Christ.

4. Impious and wicked are the methods of those who substitute self-help and …

Election Day Minus Seven: In the eye of the storm

Gallup has suspended its tracking poll due to Hurricane Sandy.

Mitt Romney and POTUS have also suspended their campaigns. I was supposed to help out with a visit by the Mittster tonight, but only Ann is coming. I'm going to make this fast, since I'm supposed to help.

Even NPR's poll, which had given Mr. Obama a seven-point lead four weeks ago, now puts Romney in the lead, albeit by only a point.

Today's RCP average has Romney up 48%-47%.

HT: Drudge
Real Clear Politics

Getting a few things straight

Lutheran Satire on the historic liturgy, dressing up on Halloween- and the most evil thing the world has ever seen:



Election Day Minus Eight: Battleground Poll predicts four-point Romney win

The bi-partisan Battleground Poll, which has a reputation as the most reliable of all, is predicting a 52%-47% victory a week from tomorrow for Mitt Romney.

Battleground's Ed Goess summarizes the race:

In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.
Today's RCP average has Romney at 47.6%, and Obama at 46.8%.

Tracking polls:

Gallup: Romney 51%, Obama 46%.

Rasm…

Bears 24, Panthers 23

When I heard an announcers say yesterday that the Packers could gain some ground in the NFC Central, "the Bears losing 16-7," I thought that was a final.

Not so! The Ursine Warriors came back in the fourth quarter to win on a last-second Robbie Gould field goal, 24-23!

BEAR DOWN!


Election Day Minus Nine: Down the home stretch

A new Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll of Ohio voters shows a 49%-49% tie between President Obama and Governor Romney.

By most calculations (including mine), whoever carries Ohio a week from Tuesday will almost certainly win the presidency.

Gallup's tracking poll shows Romney with 50% and Obama with 46%. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows an identical result. Rasmussen also shows Wisconsin- usually a reliably "blue" state, in which the president has consistently lead, but the home state of Republican vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan- as a 49%-49% dead heat.

A new ABC News-Washington Post poll shows Romney leading the president 49% to 48%.

While it hardly seems possible, Obama TV ads seem to be getting even more shrill as the president apparently grows more and more desperate:



In the RCP national average, Romney continues to lead Obama by less than percentage point, 47.7% to 46.8%.

My guess is that at this time next week, we'll know who's going …

Squadrons of winged pigs block out Iowa sun as the Register endorses Romney!

In Iowa, there are six pigs for every person. And all of them were in the skies this morning.

In Hell, Satan announced an eternal lockout for the newly-formed Infernal Hockey League. The players weren't too disturbed, though, because it's too cold down there for them to exert themselves.

The Des Moines Register- aka "Iowa's Best Red Newspaper," which hasn't endorsed a Republican for president in forty years- has endorsed Mitt Romney.

To say that I didn't see this coming- that nobody did- wouldn't begin to express the shock this state is in. This is a body blow to the Obama campaign in this swing state, and Romney supporters are left wondering, "What's the catch?" That is, after they convince themselves that they're not hallucinating those words on the Register editorial page.

Yeah, I was aware of the huge number of newspapers which endorsed Obama in 2008, but have switched to Romney this time. But the Register?! I would have been le…

Northwestern 28, Iowa 17

Coulter rocks the joint.

Takes some of the sting out of the Bears' loss to Carolina today. Go Wildcats!



ADDENDUM: HOLD ON! It seems that the Bears score I heard wasn't a final!

This is a two-victory weekend after all!!!

Election Day Minus Ten: What's going to happen

Here's my prediction as to the direction this election is going to go:

Write the weekend of November 2-4 down on your calendar.

Over that weekend, the election is going to break decisively one way or the other. My guess is that it will be for Romney- and by enough that the electoral vote issue won't be an issue. In other words, I predict that events will follow the same path as in 1980.

Remember- you heard it here first.

Election Day Minus Eleven: Where have we heard this before?

The Democrats are obviously running out of ammunition, and must be getting desperate.

People have called Mitt Romney a great many things, but "stupid" isn't one of them. But now, having apparently exhausted the potential of the George H.W. Bush/rich-guy-who-isn't-a-Kennedy gambit, the Obama people are finally playing the Ike/Gerald Ford/Ronald Reagan/George W. Bush card- no matter how self-evidently absurd the premise:


Why is it that whenever they can't find anything substantive to say about their opponents, they resort to the same, tired old ad hominems? They could at least come up with another one, like saying the Republican target is ugly,or has bad breath, or that his mommy dresses him funny, or something. Mean-spiritedness isn't restricted to Democrats, of course. But it would appear that when it comes to imagination, they're as limited as trash-talkers as they are as policy makers.

It's been said before, and I'll say it now: even if Preside…

Keep in mind that this speech is being given in OHIO

There used to be a tee-shirt for sale at our state universitiy bookstore that read, "University of Iowa, Ohio City, Idaho."

I guess VPOTUS must have seen it.

Now, about requiring religious organizations to violate their beliefs through their employee health plans...

As we continue to hear about how Mitt Romney doesn't want women to have access to birth control because he doesn't favor forcing religious organizations whose teachings forbid it to include it in the health insurance they offer to their employees, Lutheran Satire has a look at the congressional hearings on the issue a while back....

Election Day Minus Twelve: POTUS fertilizes the campaign rhetoric a bit

President Obama is either getting rattled, or he's letting his dislike of his opponent show. He says that children can tell that Gov. Romney is...er, a purveyor of bovine excrement.

Real Clear Politics National Average: Romney 47.8, Obama 47.1

Tracking polls:

Rasmussen: Romney 50, Obama 47
Gallup: Romney 50, Obama 47
ABC News/ Washington Post: Romney 49, Obama 48
Reuters/Ipsos: Romney 47, Obama 46
AP-GfK Roper: Romney 47, Obama 45
A prominent local polling firm shows Obama and Romney in a virtual tie in... Michigan.

The Obama campaign has apparently given up in North Carolina. They haven't bothered to include the state in their latest round of ads.

HT: Drudge
Real Clear Politics

Incidentally...

In case you want to experience those goosebumps again, here's that last scene from Braveheart:

Wha' the hae'?

I'm not sure exactly when my ancestors migrated from the lowlands of Scotland to Ulster, but it's certain that they were still in Scotland when the Battle of Bannockburn, usually regarded as the decisive battle in the First Scottish War of Independence,was fought in 1314. It's the battle whose beginning forms the final sequence of the movie Braveheart.

Centuries later, not long before Scotland's final loss of independence through the 1707 Act of Union with England which created Great Britain, Scotland's greatest poet, Robert Burns, wrote Scots Wha Hae, which was set to music and is regarded, along with Scotland the Brave, as the main competitors with Scotland's unofficial national anthem, Flower of Scotland.

The poem is Burns's conception of a speech by Robert Bruce to his troops before leading them into battle at Bannockburn. Bruce, incidentally, was a Lowlander. Lucky fellow!

That loss of independence may not be final. A referendum is scheduled for 2014…

Reuters: White House knew militants were claiming responsibility for Benghazi within two hours of attack!

Reuters is reporting that both the State Department and the White House were informed within two hours of the deaths of the American ambassador to Libya and several other diplomats in Benghazi that a militant Islamic group called Ansar al-Sharia was claiming responsibility for the attack

The White House insisted for several days that the incident was a spontaneous demonstation against an anti-Islamic video. In the second debate, President Obama pointedly sought- with an assist from misinformation provided by moderator Candy Crowley- to deny that fact in spite of the clear testimony of the record.

HT: Drudge

Election Day Minus Thirteen: The state of the race

Independents now favor Romney by 12 percent, according to a new Washington Post-ABC poll which also shows Romney leading Obama 49-48 among likely voters.

The Rasmussen tracking poll puts Romney up 50-46, while the Gallup tracking poll has Romney leading by the same margin. Both polls also are of likely, rather than registered, voters.

Rasmussen also shows Romney leading 50-45 in the swing states.

A third Rasmussen poll shows 47$ of the American people seeing the economy doing better under Romney, and only 35% with Obama.

Michael Knox Beran of National Review Online reports that the Obama campaign is discussing pathways to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory which do not include Ohio.

Two new polls are out in Ohio. Rasmussen shows a 48-48 tie there, while Survey USA puts Obama up by 47-44. The RCP average puts Obama ahead by 47-46.

Hang on to your hats, people.

The state of the race on 10/23

Tracking polls for 10/23:

ABC News/Washington Post: Romney 49, Obama 48.

Gallup: Romney 51, Obama 46.

Rasmussen: Romney 50, Obama 46.

IBD/TIPP: Obama 46.5, Romney 44.5.
National and swing-state average of polls at Real Clear Politics:

National: Romney 48.0, Obama 47.1..

Ohio: Obama 47.6, Romney 45.7.

Florida: Romney 48.4, Obama 46.6.

Virginia: Romney 48, Obama 48.

New Hampshire: Obama 48.6, Romney 47.2.

Colorado: Romney 48.7, Obama 47.6.

Iowa: Obama 48.8, Romney 46.8.
Win, lose or draw, this is going to be fun.

Bears 13, Detroit 7

The Ursine Warriors are now 2-1 on Monday Night Football this year.

We lead the NFC North by one game over the Men in Braids, and by two over the Moldy Bananas.

BEAR DOWN!

Will Romney win the election by losing the last debate?

I felt as deflated as a balloon with a slow leak as I sat there at Romney HQ last night watching the Mittster do his imitation of Barack Obama in the first debate.

Obama's eminently vulnerable record in foreign policy went largely unchallenged. When the president talked about not supplying arms to foreign countries, no reference was made to Fast and Furious. I did not hear a word about the habit the Leader of the Free World has of abasing himself- and thereby the country- before kings and dictators upon meeting them. Hugo Chavez's endorsement of Obama was unmentioned, as was the incident of the Churchill bust, the snubbings of the Dalai Lama and of Bibi Netanyahu, or even the Benghazi debacle. World leaders, who disliked President Bush, see President Obama as a non-entity, as somebody not to be taken seriously. But no attempt was made by Governor Romney to point that out.

President Obama was allowed to get away with bloody murder, repeatedly misrepresenting statements Govern…

Ok. It's a little late for St. Michael and All Angels.

But I thought I'd share this anyway...

Last dance for Obama and Romney

Tonight the candidates conduct their third and final debate.

At the Al Smith Dinner the other night, POTUS offered a spoiler: "We got bin Laden." The trouble is, as a Washington Examiner editorial puts it, "Killing bin Laden is not a foreign policy." And if a guy gets a Nobel Peace Prize, shouldn't it be for something more substantial than not being George W. Bush?

The debate comes on a day on which Romney continues to hold a six-point lead in the Gallup tracking poll, an 0.8% lead both in the race and on favorability in the RCP average, and a 49%-47% lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.

Obama enjoys an essentially undeserved reputation for competence in the field of foreign policy. Tonight, expect Romney to stress that diplomacy consists of more than abasing oneself in the presence of foreign leaders.

And oh, yes. You will hear about Benghazi. A lot.

A great deal rides on this debate. This is Romney's chance to close the deal and convince voters that he&#…

The ice age arrives in the infernal regions

The slogan of the Des Moines Register is "Iowa's Best-Read Newspaper." Iowa conservatives refer to it tongue-in-cheek as "Iowa's Best Red Newspaper." Suffice it to say that the Register's editorial policy is slightly to the Left of Thomas Müntzer.

So when the Register endorses Congressman Tom Latham, the Republican candidate in our redrawn Third District, over Democratic Congressman Leonard Boswell, it's a good sign that old Leonard had perhaps better be considering his retirement plans.

For which, huzzah!

The race for the White House: It's all about the electoral vote

Today's Gallup daily tracking poll: Romney 52%, Obama 45%.

Today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll: Romney 49%, Obama 47%.

Both polls are of likely voters.

Ohio is up for grabs.

The Real Clear Politics average continues to show Obama leading by .02%.

We have a situation developing in which a Romney victory in the popular vote and an Obama victory in the Electoral College is by no means out of the question.

It all will come down to eight states- Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida- and 108 counties.

HT: Drudge
Real Clear Politics

George McGovern comes home, America

When I was eighteen, I experienced a period of temporary insanity.

I became a Democrat.

There were several stressors. My father, a conservative Republican who thought that Barry Goldwater was a few fries short of a Happy Meal and was impressed by Lyndon Johnson's career as Senate Majority Leader,  switched sides in 1964. After backing Pennsylvania Gov. Bill Scranton for the Republican nomination, so did I.

And then, four years later, I was facing eligibility for the draft. I was in no danger (or so I thought) of actually being drafted (having been accepted at what was then Concordia Teachers College in River Forest at the time an institution for training teachers for the Missouri Synod's parochial schools, and thus classified not merely as a deferred college student, but as an exempted ministerial student for Selective Service purposes), the draft didn't exactly loom threateningly over my head.

But turning eighteen still made me think. Others of my age were going to fight…

Anything can happen in this election

Yesterday afternoon I suggested that Nate Silver of the New York Times was in denial- and perhaps engaging in a little wishful thinking- when he dismissed Mitt Romney's surprisingly substantial lead in the Gallup tracking poll in recent days (incidentally, today's poll still shows the Republican nominee up by six points over President Obama).

Matt Lewis of The Daily Calleragrees with me. But even so, maybe I spoke too soon. Ed Kilgore of Washington Monthlyalso cautions against taking the Gallup results too seriously, citing questionable methodology. And the fact is that most of the polls show a closer race. In fact, the Real Clear Politics national average shows the president leading by 0.1%.

It's hard to see how an election could be any closer than that.

Joe Battenfield of the Boston Heraldsees Mr. Obama as being in big trouble. Several states in which the president should have no trouble at all- states like Michigan and Wisconsin and even Pennsylvania- have shown signs …

Denial, as they say ....

...isn't just a river in Egypt.

Sometimes it runs through New York City. Right by the offices of the Times.


HT: Real Clear Politics

Romney v. Obama: News from the front

As reported yesterday, the Real Clear Politics average of state polls puts Gov. Romney ahead in the Electoral College, 206-201. But I learned on the CBS Evening News last night that the network's experts put President Obama at 255 electoral votes- only fifteen short of victory.

I know what RCP's estimate is based on. But what is the basis of CBS's estimate? Wishful thinking?

Today's Gallup tracking poll has Gov. Romney losing one point of his lead among likely voters. He's now ahead of the president by "only" six points instead of seven- 51%-45%.

The Susquahanna Poll shows Romney leading the president 50% to 46% in solid blue Pennsylvania.

New Rasmussen polls also show the Republican nominee with a three point lead in Virginia, and a five point lead in Florida. Rasmussen also has Romney up by three points in North Carolina.

Rasmussen does put the president ahead in the Electoral College- but only by 237-235, with 66 electoral votes up for grabs.

Lee Iococ…

Dead diplomat's mom thinks Obama's comments less than 'optimal'

It seems that President Obama has told Jon Stewart of Comedy Central that four Americans being killed in Benghazi is not "optimal."

Mrs.Pat Smith, mother of diplomat Sean Smith, today told British reporters,, "It's a disrespectful thing to day, and I don't think it's right. How can you say somebody being killed is not very optimal? I don't think the president ahs the right idea of the English language.

"It's insensitive to say my son is not very optimal- he is also very dead," Mrs. Smith continued. "I've not been 'optimal' since he died and teh past few weeks have been pure hell."

"I am still waiting for the truth to come out," the diplomat's mother continued, "and I still want to know the truth. I'm finally starting to get some answers but I won't give up.

"There are a lot of stupid things taht have been said bout my son and what happened, and this is another one of them."

HT: Dru…

Obama's pension is bigger than Romney's- and Obama DOES have investments in the Caymans!

Despite the presidential zinger that brought cheers and applause among the highly-biased "journalists" in the press room last Tuesday night, it turns out that President Obama has a larger pension than Mitt Romney does.

And yes- POTUS- like Romney- does indeed have investments in a Cayman Islands trusts, as Romney pointed out during Tuesday's debate

HT: Drudge

Newsweek meets a well-deserved end. Sort of.

A long, long time ago, Newsweek was a news magazine. But already back in the 'Sixties, it announced that environmental issues were so important that it would no longer seek to be objective in reporting on them.

Yeah, I know. Didn't make much sense to me, either. But as the years went on, less and less one read in Newsweek made sense. It increasingly became a journal of Leftist opinion- and opposition to historical Christianity- masquerading as a news magazine. Its excursions into liberal theology each Christmas and Easter as it devoted covers to explaining why the biblical accounts shouldn't be trusted became a must-miss tradition for believers and most unbelievers alike.

Perhaps the low point came when Newsweek editorialized that the mere appeal to biblical authority- not any particular theory of biblical authority, mind you, but biblical authority itself- is not only "intellectually bankrupt," but "the worst kind of fundamentalism. This strange, historic…

ROMNEY TAKES LEAD IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE

For the first time, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has taken the lead over President Obama in the Real Clear Politics electoral college calculation, based on the average of the polls in each state.

Romney has 206 electoral votes to Obama's 201. 270 are needed to elect a president.

Romney has also increased his lead over the president to seven points in Gallup's daily tracking poll.

The talking heads said that the vice-presidential debate was going to halt the Obama-Biden slide. Then they said that Tuesday night's second presidential debate was going to halt that slide.

But the slide goes on.

HT: Drudge

Round Two: In the last analysis, a draw

In the aftermath of last night's "town meeting" debate between President Obama and Governor Romney, an instant poll of undecided voters conducted by CBS found that 37% thought that POTUS had won the debate, 30% thought that Romney had won it- and that 33% thought it was a draw.

I initially gave the debate to Obama by a small margin, at least in terms of impact on the race. If the debate was being scored, I would have seen it as a draw. But Mr. Obama seemed to me to do marginally better than his opponent in the showmanship aspect that debate judges strive to ignore, but which is apt to impress potential voters.

But when all is said and done, when 63% of the audience thinks either that your opponent won or that the evening was a wash, it's difficult to make the case that you've scored much of a victory even if a plurality thinks otherwise. I think the unnamed Romney advisor CBS quoted was right when he said of the debate, "This isn't going to move the nee…

An Obama-Crowley tag team after all?

Feminists are outraged at the insistence of both campaigns  that Candy Crowley, the moderator of tonight's debate, be deprived of the right to be an active participant- which means, as a practical matter, for the liberal Ms. Crowley to help out President Obama if he needs it.

Get over it, ladies. Candy is not a Candy-date. She's there as a moderator, not as a participant.

But there are indications that she might decide to play tag-team with POTUS anyway.

HT: Drudge

Joe Biden's reign of error continues

Joe Biden- who voted in favor of both the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan, but claimed in the vice-presidential debate last week tht he'd voted against both of them- got quite a few other things wrong as well.

One of them when he stated with regard to Afghanistan that "we're leaving in 2014, period."

Maybe not.

Meanwhile, the nation's Catholic bishops have pointed out that the vice-president was also wrong in claiming that the Obama administration's contraception mandate does not require Catholic institutions to pay for medications whose use violates Catholic teachings.

And then there's Biden's denial that cutting tax rates has ever caused income to rise (it's happened four times in American history- not just two, as Rep. Ryan had claimed). And...

Well, it might we easier just to list the times when Biden got the facts right!

HT: Drudge

Now THAT is wind!

I think Luther South was playing Wheaton Academy the day our punter- Bob Scott, if I remember right- kicked a fairly average high school punt that the wind got ahold of- and caused to roll seventy yards for what I'm certain was a Private School League record. Maybe even a state record.

The wind in Chicago can be nasty; they don't call it "the Windy City" for nothing (and contrary to what is often said, my home town had that nickname long before a New York newspaper man used it to refer to Chicago's penchant for self-promotion). Iowa's winds can be rough, too- as a couple of fellow Chicagoans and I learned in our saminary days-specifically, the week leading up to Super Bowl XX- when we tried to keep the oversized sunglasses and the "Rozelle" headband we'd put on the statue of Martin Luther from flying off.

But I have to think that the wind in Texas takes the cake- as the poor punter in the video below learned to his sorrow.



HT: Drudge