History is on Romney's side in 2010

To expand upon the point of Mitt Romney's likely nomination by the Republican party in 2010, it might be worth looking back over the party's history and recognizing that in the 39 national conventions the party has held, the nominee has been the incumbent in 14 cases.

Of the 25 remaining conventions, there have been nine in which there was no obvious "next-in-line" by virtue either of being his predecessor's natural successor, having finished second in the previous contested nomination, or running such a credible losing campaign that he was seen as deserving another chance. There have been ten in which there was such a candidate- and he was nominated.

In only six have there been such a candidate who has failed to be nominated.

Here is a recap of the way the "law of primogeniture" has worked historically, from the most recent election back to the party's origins:

• 2008 Nominee: John McCain, runner-up to George W. Bush in 2000.
• 2004 Nominee: George W. Bush, seeking re-election.
• 2000 Nominee: George W. Bush, a governor of Texas popular among Republicans and Democrats alike in that state, chosen in a year in which there was no obvious "next-in-line."
• 1996 Nominee: Bob Dole, runner-up to George H.W. Bush in 1988.
• 1992 Nominee: George H.W. Bush, seeking re-election.
• 1988 Nominee: George H.W. Bush, Vice-President under Ronald W. Reagan.
• 1984 Nominee: Ronald W. Reagan, seeking re-election.
• 1980 Nominee: Ronald W. Reagan, runner-up to Gerald R. Ford in 1976
• 1976 Nominee: Gerald R. Ford, Vice-President under Richard M. Nixon.
• 1972 Nominee: Richard M. Nixon, seeking re-election.
• 1968 Nominee: Richard M. Nixon, Vice-President under Dwight D. Eisenhower, narrowly defeated by John F. Kennedy in 1960, and acceptable to both the Goldwater and Rockefeller wings of the party.
• 1964 Nominee: Barry M. Goldwater, in a year in which the closest thing to an obvious next-in-line- New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, who had finished second to Richard Nixon in 1960, failed to whole-heartedly seek the nomination.
• 1960 Nominee: Richard M. Nixon, Vice-President under Dwight D. Eisenhower.
• 1956 Nominee: Dwight D. Eisenhower, seeking re-election.
• 1952 Nominee: Dwight D. Eisenhower- an exception, who narrowly defeated the next-in-line, Sen. Robert A. Taft (runner-up to Dewey, due to an exceptionally strong determination to win brought about a run of five consecutive elections won by the Democrats.
• 1948 Nominee: Thomas E. Dewey, re-nominated against a weaker opponent after losing to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.
• 1944 Nominee: Thomas E. Dewey, arguably the logical successor (at least on the basis of support on the first ballot at the 1940 convention) to the defeated and essentially aberrational Wendell L. Wilkie.
• 1940 Nominee: Wendell L. Wilkie, nominated as a dark horse by a convention deadlocked among Thomas E. Dewey, Robert A. Taft and Arthur Vandenberg.
• 1936 Nominee: Alfred E. Landon, nominated in a year in which there was no obvious "next in line."
• 1932 Nominee: Herbert Hoover, seeking re-election.
• 1928 Nominee: Herbert Hoover, Calvin Coolidge's Secretary of Commerce and as close to an heir apparent as the party had.
• 1924 Nominee: President Calvin Coolidge, who had succeeded to the office upon the death of President Warren G. Harding.
• 1920 Nominee: Warren G. Harding, a dark horse in a year in which there was no clear next-in-line.
• 1916 Nominee: Charles Evans Hughes, a compromise candidate selected to heal the rift between the Roosevelt and Taft wings of the party.
• 1912 Nominee: William Howard Taft, seeking re-election.
• 1908 Nominee: William Howard Taft, Theodore Roosevelt's Secretary of War.
• 1904 Nominee: Theodore Roosevelt, who succeeded to the presidency upon the assassination of William McKinley.
• 1900 Nominee: William McKinley, seeking re-election.
• 1896 Nominee: William McKinley, in a year when there was no obvious next-in-line.
• 1892 Nominee: Benjamin Harrison, seeking re-election.
• 1888 Nominee: Benjamin Harrison, nominated after the withdrawal of front-runner James G. Blaine.
• 1884 Nominee: James G. Blaine, nominated in preference to incumbent President Chester A. Arthur.
• 1880 Nominee: James Garfield, nominated when delegates balked at a third term for front-runner Ulysses S. Grant.
• 1876 Nominee: An exception. Rutherford B. Hayes selected because delegates didn't believe that front runner James G. Blaine could win.
• 1872 Nominee: Ulysses S. Grant, seeking re-election.
• 1868 Nominee: Ulysses S. Grant, a national hero and obvious candidate in a year when incumbent Andrew Johnson was not a viable choice and there was no obvious "next-in-line."
• 1864 Nominee: Abraham Lincoln, seeking re-election.
• 1860 Nominee: Abraham Lincoln, in a year in which there was no obvious "next-in-line."
• 1856 Nominee: John C. Fremont, at the party's first nominating convention.