Sunday, October 16, 2016

And here it is: Nate Silver's explanation of how Evan McMullin could end up being our next president

I've already described the essentials; McMullin is in a virtual tie with Trump and Clinton in Utah and doing well in several other mountain states. Even if Gary Johnson were to carry NewMexico, Utah alone would make McMullin number three in the Electoral College because it has six electoral votes to New Mexico's five.

The Constitution specifies that if no candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College, the House chooses among the top three. If McMullin carries Utah, that would be Trump, Clinton- and McMullin.

The House would simply keep voting until somebody gets a majority of the states. If by Inauguration Day nobody has been chosen,  whoever the Senate picks between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine would become president.

The McMullin congressmen and congresswomen aren't going to accept Trump or Hillary. But faced with a choice between McMullin and Hillary, it seems likely that the Trump members would prefer McMullin. 

Nate Silver explains the whole scenario here. The odds, as he says, are against it.

About the same as the odds of the Cubs coming back in the ninth inning to beat the Giants in the decisive game of the NLDS.

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