Into a cocked hat
This is a crazy, crazy election year!
Democratic pollster John Zogby- who happens also to consistently be the most reliable of the national pollsters- has been saying for months that this campaign for the presidency is John Kerry's to lose. He has done so at least partially due to a very reasonable assumption: that since re-election campaigns are, in effect, referenda on the incumbent, and since undecided voters tend to break overwhelmingly for the challenger, the race hasn't nearly been as close as the numbers indicate.
But now Zogby has a new poll which throws those assumptions into a cocked hat. Self-identified undecided likely voters overwhemingly disapprove of the job President Bush is doing (77%).
Majorities believe that the country is headed in the "wrong direction" (56%), that President Bush does not deserve re-election (53%), and that they would be happier if there were other candidates (87%).
But when push comes to shove, so strongly do they dislike John Kerry personally, and so strongly do they like President Bush personally, that Bush holds a twenty-five point lead over Kerry as the guy undecided likely voters are likely to end up voting for! In fact, while 35% lean to Bush, only 38% of the undecided likely voters can't give a preference either way!
In short, my analysis of these numbers- and I can't really see any other way to look at them- is that in fact, if this campaign isn't as close as it looks, it's because President Bush may be headed to a rather substantial margin of victory, if for no other reason because of the Democrats' choice of candidates.
As the saying goes, "You can't beat somebody with nobody. "NotBush" won't be on the ballot. The Democrats will have to make do with John Forbes Kerry- and he's just not nearly good enough!
Democratic pollster John Zogby- who happens also to consistently be the most reliable of the national pollsters- has been saying for months that this campaign for the presidency is John Kerry's to lose. He has done so at least partially due to a very reasonable assumption: that since re-election campaigns are, in effect, referenda on the incumbent, and since undecided voters tend to break overwhelmingly for the challenger, the race hasn't nearly been as close as the numbers indicate.
But now Zogby has a new poll which throws those assumptions into a cocked hat. Self-identified undecided likely voters overwhemingly disapprove of the job President Bush is doing (77%).
Majorities believe that the country is headed in the "wrong direction" (56%), that President Bush does not deserve re-election (53%), and that they would be happier if there were other candidates (87%).
But when push comes to shove, so strongly do they dislike John Kerry personally, and so strongly do they like President Bush personally, that Bush holds a twenty-five point lead over Kerry as the guy undecided likely voters are likely to end up voting for! In fact, while 35% lean to Bush, only 38% of the undecided likely voters can't give a preference either way!
In short, my analysis of these numbers- and I can't really see any other way to look at them- is that in fact, if this campaign isn't as close as it looks, it's because President Bush may be headed to a rather substantial margin of victory, if for no other reason because of the Democrats' choice of candidates.
As the saying goes, "You can't beat somebody with nobody. "NotBush" won't be on the ballot. The Democrats will have to make do with John Forbes Kerry- and he's just not nearly good enough!
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