Through the lense of history
No wartime U.S. President has ever been defeated for re-election.
Every wartime U.S. President, by the way, has run up a deficit- a point which, had it been raised, would have cleared the air of a great deal of demogogery during the second debate last week.
This election looks hard to call. While President Bush leads in most polls, most are within the statistical margin of error. The President's approval rating hovers around fifty percent; the good news is that John Kerry's is even worse.
Kerry seems, however, to be on a roll at exactly the right moment. Bush's arguable victory (or at least non-defeat) in the second debate seems not to have stopped the momentum switch to Kerry. With one more debate in the offing, that may or may not change. My guess is that the third debate, like the second, will have minimal impact on the race.
One of the columnists- I don't remember which one- made the sage observation this past week that Presidents of the United States are seldom if ever either re-elected or denied re-election by close margins. My hunch is that whichever way this election goes, it won't be close. Despite the continued closeness of the polls and all the talk about the small undecided totals and America as a "fifty-fifty nation," I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that during the weekend before the election- Oct. 29-31- the electorate will break dramatically and decisively one way or the other. Forty-eight hours before the folks in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire go to the polls, those with an ear to the ground will already know who the President will be these next four years.
Keep an eye on the tracking polls that weekend, folks.
Every wartime U.S. President, by the way, has run up a deficit- a point which, had it been raised, would have cleared the air of a great deal of demogogery during the second debate last week.
This election looks hard to call. While President Bush leads in most polls, most are within the statistical margin of error. The President's approval rating hovers around fifty percent; the good news is that John Kerry's is even worse.
Kerry seems, however, to be on a roll at exactly the right moment. Bush's arguable victory (or at least non-defeat) in the second debate seems not to have stopped the momentum switch to Kerry. With one more debate in the offing, that may or may not change. My guess is that the third debate, like the second, will have minimal impact on the race.
One of the columnists- I don't remember which one- made the sage observation this past week that Presidents of the United States are seldom if ever either re-elected or denied re-election by close margins. My hunch is that whichever way this election goes, it won't be close. Despite the continued closeness of the polls and all the talk about the small undecided totals and America as a "fifty-fifty nation," I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that during the weekend before the election- Oct. 29-31- the electorate will break dramatically and decisively one way or the other. Forty-eight hours before the folks in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire go to the polls, those with an ear to the ground will already know who the President will be these next four years.
Keep an eye on the tracking polls that weekend, folks.
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