Zogby for Monday
According to the Reuters-Zogby Tracking Poll- historically the most accurate- President Bush has reclaimed a one-point lead- 48% to 47% for Jean Kerry- on this morning before the election.
Yesterday the poll had the candidates tied at 48% all. This positive movement is certainly a good sign for the President, but I wouldn't read too much into it. The margins not only in this poll but in most of the others are simply too close to be relied upon, especially given standard margins of error. Mr. Bush goes into the last twenty-four hours of the campaign with an average lead of 1.7% in the polls.
Zogby is a Democrat (albeit a pro-life Democrat) who has been predicting a Kerry victory for months.
Polls in the so-called "battleground states" are all over the place. Bush continues to look better in the most tracking polls in most of the close states than he does in Reuters-Zogby, which has Kerry leading in six of these states and Bush in only three.
Personally, I would be very surprised indeed if Bush carried Iowa or Minnesota, or Kerry, Florida or Ohio. But the key in all of the close states- and in the Electoral College- is clearly going to be turnout.
Certainly not since 1960, and probably not even then, has a Presidentail election hung so heavily on nuts-and-bolts election day operations. He who does a better job of getting his voters to the polls will win tomorrow.
Yesterday the poll had the candidates tied at 48% all. This positive movement is certainly a good sign for the President, but I wouldn't read too much into it. The margins not only in this poll but in most of the others are simply too close to be relied upon, especially given standard margins of error. Mr. Bush goes into the last twenty-four hours of the campaign with an average lead of 1.7% in the polls.
Zogby is a Democrat (albeit a pro-life Democrat) who has been predicting a Kerry victory for months.
Polls in the so-called "battleground states" are all over the place. Bush continues to look better in the most tracking polls in most of the close states than he does in Reuters-Zogby, which has Kerry leading in six of these states and Bush in only three.
Personally, I would be very surprised indeed if Bush carried Iowa or Minnesota, or Kerry, Florida or Ohio. But the key in all of the close states- and in the Electoral College- is clearly going to be turnout.
Certainly not since 1960, and probably not even then, has a Presidentail election hung so heavily on nuts-and-bolts election day operations. He who does a better job of getting his voters to the polls will win tomorrow.
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