The odds shift

My prediction remains Ratzinger being elected in three days, and taking the name John Paul III.

The current odds on the election of the various candidates are listed here.

Arinze of Nigeria is gaining- at least as far as the bookies are concerned- while the current favorite, Cardinal Ratzinger, seems to be losing steam, despite reportedly having about fifty of the seventy-eight votes needed for election lined up for him.

Current odds on the name the new pope will select (Benedict, for some reason, is the favorite, followed by John Paul, and then Pius) are given here.

Finally, odds on the length of the conclave will be found here.
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Eric Phillips said…
Ratzinger's 77 already. If they elect him, they'll be putting in a bid to do this again soon. It would almost be like saying, "We don't want the next pope to get as powerful as this last one did." Except... it's Ratzinger, and he's probably more conservative, and definitely more of a disciplinarian, than JP2 was. So it would kind of be a strange, conflicted choice. But then again, conflicted choices might be the kind that build consensus most easily, since different Cardinals can vote for the same man for different reasons.
4/18/2005 11:01:00 AM
Robert Elart Waters said…
Most of the papabili are his age or older. That seems to be one of the qualifications this time out. And after all, John Paul II appointed all but a handful of these guys; there are others who would be equally strong champions of conservative doctrine.

But I think his identification with the late Pope, together with the fact that he meets the other criteria, will mean Ratzinger's election.
4/18/2005 11:31:00 AM
Robert Elart Waters said…
Many years ago a rather funny book was published by Our Sunday Visitor which involved a comically idealized
traditionalist Pope who was previously Cardinal Sicola.

Get it? "Pope Sicola?"
4/18/2005 12:41:00 PM
Eric Phillips said…
Good call, Bob. It was day 2, and he picked a different name, but you predicted the part that mattered.
4/20/2005 11:08:00 AM
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