"On the basis of our exit polls, CBS News projects Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger as the winner in the papal election..."

Lutheran though I am, there's something about a papal conclave that always fascinates me. I'm a political junkie, of course, and combining that fascination with my theological interest as it does, the election of a new pope is something I always follow closely.

The process itself is interesting, taking place as it does in secret, and combining age-old ritual with personal politics of a kind found elsewhere perhaps only in the Iowa Caucuses (an event which has to be experienced to be truly appreciated, and one of the most worthwhile of the bonuses of living in the Hawkeye State). Although conducted under an oath of strict secrecy (the very word conclave comes from a Latin phrase meaning with a key, emphasizing the secrecy with which the process takes place), accounts- accurate or not- of what takes place within a conclave usually leak out. In the wake of the double election of 1978, Fr. Andrew Greeley wrote a fascinating book which claimed to be a blow-by-blow account of the conclaves which elected John Paul I and John Paul II.

The cardinals will enter the conclave at five A.M CDST Monday morning. The election will be conducted under the rules established by John Paul II in the Papal constitution Universi Dominici Gregis. The papal chamberlain will intone the words, "Extra omnes!" ( "Everybody out!") in Latin, and the doors of the Sistine Chapel will be closed and locked, to be opened again only after a new pope has been elected.

For the first time, election by acclaimation and by committee are excluded. Only the ordinary process of election by secret ballot is permitted. In principle, any baptized Catholic male may be elected; as a practical matter, it's going to be one of the 115 cardinals taking part in the conclave.

Initally a two-thirds majority is required for election. This may be reduced to a simple majority after twenty-six ballots; the cardinals would, at that point, also have the option of in effect holding a "run-off" between the two leading candidates. Three cardinals chosen by lot, called scrutineers, will count the ballots; three others, called revisers, will double-check the counting of each vote. A fiurther three, called infirmarii, will collect the votes of any sick cardinals.

After each ballot- two in the morning, and two in the afternoon- the ballots will be burned, with the smoke from the fire being emitted from a chimney easily visible from St. Peter's Square. If no pope has been elected, the ballots will theoretically be burned alone, producing black smoke; if a pope has been elected, the ballots will be burned with straw, producing white smoke. Because of a disconcerting tendency of the smoke coming from the burning of the final ballots in several recent elections turning out to be gray- thus confusing everybody- chemicals are added to the smoke to enhance its color. Since this hasn't worked well in the past, bells will toll this time in celebration as smoke that is intended to be white issues from the chimney.

Each cardinal sits upon a throne with a drawn-up canopy above it. As it becomes obvious that a candidate is going to be elected, hands go to the lanyards which deploy the canopies. As the decisive vote is counted, the canopies of all but one of the cardinals are deployed, leaving only the throne of the new pope uncovered.

After the result is announced, the Dean of the College of Cardinals asks the newly elected pope whether he accepts his election. Given an affirmative answer, he asks the new pope by what name he will be known. Since the Dean of the College of Cardinals is Ratzinger- the favorite to be elected Pope- I don't know what who would ask him.

Three sets of papal vestments- one small, one of medium, and one large- will be ready. The new pope will put one of them on, and then appear on the balcony above St. Peter's Square for the first time to give his first pontifical blessing.

Paddy Power, an Irish betting site, has established odds on the identity of the new Pope, the number of days it will take to elect him, and the name by which he will choose to be known.

The current favorite, at 3-1, is Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger, the 78 year-old German cardinal who has been known for years as "the Pope's Rotweiller." John Paul II's doctrinal watchdog and right-hand man, he has a reputation as strict enforcer of Catholic orthodoxy. Those who know him say that he is in fact a far more gentle and pastoral man than his critics admit. No one questions his powerful intellect. He offers continuity with the reign of John Paul, while at the same time being old enough that his pontificate would probably be a brief one.

Second, at 9-2, is Jean-Marie Cardinal Lutzinger, the former Archbishop of Paris. A Jewish convert whose parents died in the Holocaust (sorry, but Lutzinger would be the first Jewish pope, not the second; the notion that Peter was the first pope rests on Catholic tradition and dogma, not on history). One of his liabilities is his frankness; he's compared the liberal media to Goebbels and the Nazi propagandists.

Interestingly, his Jewish blood may work against the 79 year-old in a strange way. He views Christianity- rightly- as the completion of Judaism, and his election would probably be unpopular with Jews. My guess is that he has too much baggage.

In third place, at 5-1, is Carlo Maria Cardinal Martini, 78, who seems to have been moving up recently- for reasons I frankly don't understand. True, there will be a powerful pull after a lengthly Polish papacy to return the job to its traditional Italian occupancy. But the former Archbishop of Milan seems to me to have little chance, for two reasons: first, he's regarded as relatively liberal, and liberals are very much a minority in a College of Cardinals almost all of whom were appointed by John Paul II. And secondly, he's a Jesuit- and there are just too many people (some of them wearing red hats) who just don't like the Jesuits.

Next, at 7-1, is the Martini's successor as Archbishop of Milan, Dionigi Cardinal Tettamanzi. His relative youth, at 71, seems to be the main liability of the man who was long considered the "winter book" favorite to succeed John Paul II. He has a reputation as a "moderate-" whatever that means- and reminds some people of Pope John XXIII. Keep an eye on Tettamanzi; my hunch is that if Ratzinger falters, he'll be the man.

Francis Cardinal Arinze of Nigeria, at 8-1, is a fascinating possibility. The 71 year-old Vatican official- another candidate whose age will work against him- is a convert from Islam (!)- and, unfortunately, a heretic who (contrary to the teaching of Christ Himself) holds open the option of salvation for non-Christians. He has an obvious attraction as a man perhaps uniquely qualified to deal with the rising challenge of Islam, and many commentators regard him as a favorite. I suspect that Fr. Richard McBrien of Notre Dame University is right, though, in saying that having made a bold move in electing a Polish pope at the last conclave, the cardinals are unlikely to do so again by electing a Black pope at this one.

Claudio Cardinal Hummes, also 71, is the Archbishop of Sao Paulo, Brazil. He combines a strong emphasis on social justice with an equally strong committment to Catholic orthodoxy. Given the strength of the Latin American contingent in the College of Cardinals- they are second only to the Italians, and represent the largest number of Catholics in the world- Hummes has to be taken seriously. If Ratzinger and Tettamanzi falter, my hunch is that Hummes will be the next pope. His age is his main drawback.

At 10-1, the 78 year-old Angelo Cardinal Sodano, the Vatican Secretary of State, has many credentials. He's the right age, he has extensive experience as a diplomat, but he has little experience outside the Vatican.

Other presumed papabili (potential Popes) include Jorge Mario Cardinal Bergoglio of Argentina (12-1), Jose Da Cruz Policarpo of Portugal (12-1), Francisco Javier Errazuiz Ossa of Chile (14-1), Oscar Rodriguez Cardinal Maradiaga of Honduras (16-1)-and somebody whose name will tell you why he has little chance, Keith Cardinal O'Brien of Scotland (20-1).

Don't bet on O'Brien.

Cardiani Cardinal Ruini is also listed at 20-1.

Most likely names are believed to be Benedict (at 3-1), John Paul (at 7-2), Pius (at 6-1), Peter (get real- no new pope is going to be presumptuous enough to call himself Peter II!), at 8-1, and John at 10-1.

Paddy Power says that the odds are 5-4 that the conclave will take three days; 7-4 that it will take two days; 4-1 that it will take five days; 7-1 that it will take six days or more; 8-1 that it will take four days; and 14-1 that it will take one day.

You will hear this line over and over in the coming days, so I might as well say it, too: it is a proverb in Vatican circles that "he who goes into the conclave as a Pope comes out of the conclave as a cardinal."

Nevertheless, I predict that Ratzinger will appear on that balcony after three days as Pope John Paul III.

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