2008 and Iowa
This strikes me as a pretty good reading of Republican sentiment here in Iowa right now as far as 2008 is concerned.
But when the caucuses are finally held, Allen, Romney, Huckabee and Sanford will all do better than they do now- at Giuliani's expense, but also at Rice's. Rudy won't get anywhere near fifteen percent, once Iowa Republicans realize where he stands on the issues.
Whether Condi holds her support will depend, first, on whether or not she heeds the considerable sentiment to the effect that she should run. That, and how serious the hit is her candidacy will take once Iowa Republicans realize that she's pro-choice- however "reluctantly."
I predict, in any case, that neither Condi- with whom I could perhaps live, however uneasily- nor Giuliani- for whom I would not vote in November- will win the Iowa caucus.
Hat-tip: Presidential Primaries 2008.
Comments
But I think McCain is certainly viable, and maybe even the candidate to beat. If this were eight years ago, I think he'd be the favorite hands down.
There's something about Allen that makes me wonder, though, whether the guy who emerges in Iowa and New Hampshire won't be an even darker horse, somebody like Huckabee or Sanford. I'd classify him, along with Romney and McCain, as a very solid and viable candidate whom I just don't think will be the one whom lightning strikes.