The word from Iowa

David Yepsen's job as the political editor of Iowa's largest newspaper- the extremely liberal Des Moines Register- guarantees him a kind of expert status when it comes to the Iowa Caucuses. Usually he fills the role quite competently.

But not with this article. Doubtless Gov. Vilsack is discouraged by the evidence a recent poll provided that Iowa Democrats aren't particularly enthralled by the idea of his running for president. And Hillary Clinton's negatives in a state whose caucuses she must win- convincingly- to maintain her status as the presumptive Democratic nominee in 2008 have got to be worrisome as well.

But the fact is that Rudy Giuliani is not going to be the Republican candidate for president, and John McCain probably won't be, either. The two Republicans who pose the greatest threat to Hillary's prospects of carrying a state which leans "blue," and which she can ill afford to lose in November, aren't going to be factors.

McCain, I think, is more viable than Giuliani. But an awful lot of Republicans have pretty much the same take on the two men I have: I could swallow McCain only with difficulty (in my case due more to his stand on fetal stem cell research than the matters which bother other Republicans about him), and I flat out will not vote for Rudy Giuliani if he is the nominee. Giuliani in particular would have trouble carrying the base. In fact, once once the campaign begins in earnest (especially in Iowa, whose Republican party tends not only to be heavily influenced by the Religious Right, but rather extreme- especially on Caucus Night, when only the most highly motivated voters turn out), Giuliani's liberal positions on abortion and gay "marriage " will effectively eliminate any chance of his being a factor.

Hillary has her work cut out for her, sure. But unless I miss my guess, the nominee will probably be either Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney or Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who- like Romney- exudes personal charm and is a devastatingly effective speaker and campaigner. Romney's advantage in organization is a major plus. Of course, a great many talented Republican political operatives are working full time on gubernatorial and congressional campaigns right now, and quite a few of them will come free in November. There will still be plenty of time for Huckabee- or any other Republican, for that matter- to build a competitive organization.

I don't totally count McCain out, though my instincts tell me that at least in Iowa he will be a hard sell. George Allen hurt himself badly with the "macaca" incident, but still has a pulse. Sam Brownback has the potential to compete with Huckabee and Romney for the important support of Iowa's Religious Right. My sense is that Bill Frist is going to be able to mount a serious effort in Iowa, but will not end up finishing among the leaders.

Right now I see Romney and Huckabee as the two most viable Republicans here in Iowa, with Allen and Brownback having outside shots. McCain isn't totally out of the picture, but he isn't well-positioned. Frist will have trouble getting traction- and whatever the polls say right now, Giuliani will finish no higher than third. And I'd personally be surprised if he did that well in Iowa.

Looking beyond Iowa, either McCain or Romney- probably not both- will establish himself early on. Somebody with good credentials- going back over a longer period of time than Romney's- with the most doctrinaire of the religious conservatives will also be viable (I see this as Huckabee's niche; Brownback would be my guess as the alternative). There will be a third candidate in the race with broader support than either of the alternatives; "macaca" or not, if he's re-elected, George Allen looks to me to be the man. If he's not, both Romney and McCain might make it into the final three, though my instincts tell me it will be either one or the other who survives the early primaries.

A new possibility could, of course, emerge from somewhere- somebody like Colorado Gov. Bill Owens, or Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich. And if Allen loses to Jim Webb in November (which I don't expect), Giuliani could gather enough support to hang around, though I would still see the prospect of him being the nominee as essentially zero.

One thing should be borne in mind, in any case, amid all the polls showing Giuliani as a front-runner who would wipe the floor with Hillary: not only will his support among Republicans evaporate as- inevitably- the debate over abortion and gay "marriage" heats up, but his numbers against Hillary will also plummet.

Rudy Giuliani will have considerable trouble delivering the Republican base in November, however well he does among independents and Democrats. He is not the sure winner the media keep telling us he is.

Right now, I see Romney and- conventional wisdom to the contrary- Huckabee as best positioned to be the eventual nominee. As a southern governor, an argument can be made that Huckabee would also be the best-positioned candidate in November.

Time will tell.

HT: Real Clear Politics