Great news for the Cubs- in the long term

The baseball season began yesterday on a note of hope for the Cubs.

No, not their 5-1 Opening Day loss to the Reds- though after winning on Opening Day the past few seasons and then crashing, maybe even that was a good sign. Nor the beginning of the Lou Pinella era, despite Lou being the guy I've wanted the Cubs to hire as their manager for years.

The Tribune has been sold to a new owner- and the Cubs will be sold at the end of the season.

This figured to be a transitional year, anyway. Desperate to save his job, General Manager Jim Hendry spent like crazy during the off-season. Obviously I'm not going to gripe about Alfonso Soriano joining the team- though a fly ball pitcher like Ted Lilly and what was surely the oddest free agent signing even in the warped, bizarre history of the franchise, Jason Marquis (is that laughter I hear coming from St. Louis?) hardly were the best possible additions to the pitching staff. Mark DeRosa had a great season last year, but his career hardly promises a berth as the National League All-Star second baseman. He's a placeholder for Eric Patterson, whom the Cubs see as their second baseman of the future, just as Jacque Jones is a placeholder for phenom Felix Pie, who will play center when he's ready (Soriano will move to right). But why in the world replace Ryan Theriot, who hit .328 with a .412 OBP? It's not as if the Cubs are loaded with players who get on base! Still, DeRosa will be the starting second baseman, with Theriot on the bench.

Obviously a team with Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez is going to have some pop- though Soriano in center field will be an adventure. Cesar Izturis is one of the better defensive shortstops in the game, and the Cubs believe he can hit .270. Great if he does; I'm a tad skeptical. Michael Barrett is one of the best offensive catchers in the game; Henry Blanco is one of the best defensive catchers, and hit .266 last year. Matt Murton and Jacque Jones are solid, if unspectacular, corner outfielders.Cliff Floyd, Angel Pagan, Ronny Cedeno, Daryle Ward, and Theriot give them a reasonably solid bench.

Mark Prior is starting the season at Iowa- and Kerry Wood (tendonitis) is starting it on the DL. So what else is new? At least this year the Cubs aren't counting on either one. Ted Lilly and (shudder) Jason Marquis, I have already addressed. Hopefully Wade Miller will step up. Rich Hill has the potential to be a star, and Carlos Zambrano, of course, is one already. At worst,we're sure of a quality start at least once a week.

I will refrain from punning on the names Will Ohman and Michael Wuertz. Suffice it to say that neither impresses me. Neal Cotts, Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre are solid reliefers. We'll see whether Kerry Wood can be 1) effective and 2) healthy for any percentage of the season. This is the make-0r-break year for Ryan (Heart Attack) Dempster as the Cubs closer.

Five preview magazines I purused before the season split perfectly, one each picking them to finish first, second, third, forth and fifth. This is a weak division (I'm not impressed with the World Champion Cardinals, and frankly wasn't all that impressed with them last year- except, of course, with their ability to win the big ones). I can see the Cubs winning the division. And in this era of interminable playoff rounds, wild cards, and other such post-season abominations, it's long since ceased to matter who the best team is. The world champion is ultimately the team that gets hot at the right time- and avoids getting cold at the wrong time. It is not insane to think that the Cubs' long world championship draught could end this year. But I wouldn't bet the mortgage payment.

My prediction is that they'll finish in the top three- probably first or second- and I see a fifty-fifty chance of the playoffs. If it were not for the sale of the Cubs, making the playoffs would save Jim Hendry's job. But I have a feeling that the new owner will want to start from scratch- unless post-season lightning strikes. Again, I wouldn't bet the mortgage.

Hendry has had his moments- getting us Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi, for example, and the Todd Hundly for Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros- but the bottom line is that he simply hasn't gotten the job done. If we don't make it this year- and we almost certainly won't- it will clearly be time for somebody new.

And with the Cubs being sold, I have a feeling that even making the playoffs won't save him. And so, another era of promise ends, joining the Durocher and Dallas Green eras of hope and ultimate futility in the annals of the Cubs in my lifetime. Once again, it's time to rebuild.

But pending the identity of the team's new owner, at least, the upcoming sale of the Cubs at elast gives us ground to hope that the next era of hope won't be quite so futile in the end.