Huckabee- NOT Romney- is the real winner at Ames
A vignette from yesterday's Iowa Straw Poll at Ames:
A reporter enters a Hilton Coliseum men's room, and encounters a young man wearing a Romney T-shirt. "So you're for Romney, eh?," the reporter asks.
"Nah," the young man says- and winks. "Romney's just he one who brought me here."
Given the advantage he had in organization and finance, Mitt Romney's first place finish at Ames was anything but impressive. That his organization (and bankroll) would render the straw poll non-competitive has been obvious for many months; it's the reason why John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson decided not to participate. Lesser candidates remained in the fight chiefly because a second-place finish- ahead of first-tier candidates McCain, Giuliani and Thompson- would lend credibility to their campaigns. Tommy Thompson staked his entire candidacy on finishing second, and lost. Sam Brownback actually decided to go after Romney himself in an effort to define the contest as a two man race. He failed to reckon with Mike Huckabee's impressive presence in the debates, and the strong impression he's managed to make on Iowa Republicans simply by being who he is.
Huckabee- not Romney- is the big winner at Ames. From here on out, he has to be taken seriously, just like Romney and Giuliani and McCain and Thompson are taken seriously. Those four- plus Mike Huckabee- constitute the viable field for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.
In fact, that Romney- with all his organization and all his money- was not able to dominate the poll more completely- that Huckabee's showing, rather than Romney's, should be the story- raises some serious questions. David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register observed this morning that the turnout at Ames was far lower than it was eight years ago, the last time there was a contested race for the Republican nomination. The fact that only one top-tier candidate was competing doubtless played a role in keeping the turnout down. But as Yepsen observed, there was a discernable lack of enthusiasm for the Republican field in play at Ames. While it remains an open question whether the renewed participation of McCain and Giuliani- and in particular the emergence of Fred Thompson as a candidate actively seeking people's support- creates an increased level of interest from here on out, it'll be hard for the Romney crowd to argue that yesterday's result demonstrates anything resembling a decisive preference on the part of Iowa Republicans for their man.
Oh- and we all can replax now. Ron Paul's nutball campaign has had its moment in the sun. It's a little scary that "Dr. No-" the congressman who habitiually votes against literally every action not explicitly stated by the Constitution as being among the concerns to be embraced by Congress- managed to get nearly ten percent of the vote at Ames. Enumerated Federal are a completely different issue from enumerated Federal concerns, which the Constitution does not list; it seems unlikely that the decision on the part of the Founding Fathers to enumerate one and not the other was either accidental, or the result of the kind of bad logic ihherent in- and the bad logic behind Paul's equating of the two. The notion that in a complex and ever-changing world it is in any sense rational to think that America could function if the Federal government restricted itself to acting only when its constitutional sanction for doing so is explicit, and then only in stereotyped, predetermined ways can be sustained only on the assumption that the Founding Fathers were not idiots- which they were emphatically not.
Jeff Fuller over at Iowans for Romney mentioned that while there were lots of Ron Paul bumperstickers in evidence at Ames, in no case did he observe one in combination with an Iowa licence plate. Good; I for one find Paul's supporters nearly as scary as their candidate, and while it seems that nearly ten percent of the participants yesterday voted for their man, I find the thought that a large percentage of those who were in Iowa yesterday have gone home comforting.
A reporter enters a Hilton Coliseum men's room, and encounters a young man wearing a Romney T-shirt. "So you're for Romney, eh?," the reporter asks.
"Nah," the young man says- and winks. "Romney's just he one who brought me here."
Given the advantage he had in organization and finance, Mitt Romney's first place finish at Ames was anything but impressive. That his organization (and bankroll) would render the straw poll non-competitive has been obvious for many months; it's the reason why John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson decided not to participate. Lesser candidates remained in the fight chiefly because a second-place finish- ahead of first-tier candidates McCain, Giuliani and Thompson- would lend credibility to their campaigns. Tommy Thompson staked his entire candidacy on finishing second, and lost. Sam Brownback actually decided to go after Romney himself in an effort to define the contest as a two man race. He failed to reckon with Mike Huckabee's impressive presence in the debates, and the strong impression he's managed to make on Iowa Republicans simply by being who he is.
Huckabee- not Romney- is the big winner at Ames. From here on out, he has to be taken seriously, just like Romney and Giuliani and McCain and Thompson are taken seriously. Those four- plus Mike Huckabee- constitute the viable field for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.
In fact, that Romney- with all his organization and all his money- was not able to dominate the poll more completely- that Huckabee's showing, rather than Romney's, should be the story- raises some serious questions. David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register observed this morning that the turnout at Ames was far lower than it was eight years ago, the last time there was a contested race for the Republican nomination. The fact that only one top-tier candidate was competing doubtless played a role in keeping the turnout down. But as Yepsen observed, there was a discernable lack of enthusiasm for the Republican field in play at Ames. While it remains an open question whether the renewed participation of McCain and Giuliani- and in particular the emergence of Fred Thompson as a candidate actively seeking people's support- creates an increased level of interest from here on out, it'll be hard for the Romney crowd to argue that yesterday's result demonstrates anything resembling a decisive preference on the part of Iowa Republicans for their man.
Oh- and we all can replax now. Ron Paul's nutball campaign has had its moment in the sun. It's a little scary that "Dr. No-" the congressman who habitiually votes against literally every action not explicitly stated by the Constitution as being among the concerns to be embraced by Congress- managed to get nearly ten percent of the vote at Ames. Enumerated Federal are a completely different issue from enumerated Federal concerns, which the Constitution does not list; it seems unlikely that the decision on the part of the Founding Fathers to enumerate one and not the other was either accidental, or the result of the kind of bad logic ihherent in- and the bad logic behind Paul's equating of the two. The notion that in a complex and ever-changing world it is in any sense rational to think that America could function if the Federal government restricted itself to acting only when its constitutional sanction for doing so is explicit, and then only in stereotyped, predetermined ways can be sustained only on the assumption that the Founding Fathers were not idiots- which they were emphatically not.
Jeff Fuller over at Iowans for Romney mentioned that while there were lots of Ron Paul bumperstickers in evidence at Ames, in no case did he observe one in combination with an Iowa licence plate. Good; I for one find Paul's supporters nearly as scary as their candidate, and while it seems that nearly ten percent of the participants yesterday voted for their man, I find the thought that a large percentage of those who were in Iowa yesterday have gone home comforting.
Comments
Agreed! Which is probably why they included and amendment process. Smart dudes.
Of the mid-range finishers, Paul won the loudest bragging rights. The anti-war, pro-constitution candidate has barely been to Iowa -- he made his third trip to the state for the straw poll -- and spent far less on Saturday than the other candidates. While other candidates brought in rock bands, gave away rib dinners and ice cream and set up elaborate play areas for the children of supporters, Paul's supporters deployed a large black sign with a quotation from Ben Franklin that read: "Make yourselves sheep, and the wolves will eat you."
And there was nothing to see coming. Nobody who finishes fifth gets any bragging rights at all, Jeff; those who share your political viewpoint appear to continue to harbor delusions of relevance.
A fifth place finish in a poll boycotted by two of the three leading candidates with as historically low a turnout as Sunday's small poll is an embarassment to any candidate who actually sought votes. And, as I said, we have now heard the last of the small, highly motivated minority of extremists who comprise the Paul campaign. Come the Caucuses, delusions of significance won't be so easy for you guys to cherish.