Incidentally...
...the caucus scuttlebutt here in Iowa is that Mike Huckabee has passed Fred Thompson in the polls and is now foremost of the Republican candidates distantly trailing Mitt Romney.
Romney poured tons of money into Iowa from the very beginning, and has put on such a well-funded, strong and lengthly media campaign that he may be unbeatable. Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are right behind Huckabee.
Looks like four "tickets" out of Iowa this year, instead of the usual three.
Romney poured tons of money into Iowa from the very beginning, and has put on such a well-funded, strong and lengthly media campaign that he may be unbeatable. Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are right behind Huckabee.
Looks like four "tickets" out of Iowa this year, instead of the usual three.
Comments
Trust me, Jeff. None of those guys have anything to fear from Ron Paul.
He may be in it for the duration, but for him the duration is the convention- and as a nuisence candidate at that.
Do you plan on going to your caucus? I've never lived in a caucus state, but they sound odd. You can't just drop in on your way to work and cast a vote. You gotta drag your butt at a certain time to a meeting, or something.
Sounds like a low-turnout event to me. I know I wouldn't go unless I had some minimum level of enthusiasm for a particular candidate. Sounds like the perfect thing to favor RON PAUL and his incredible crabgrassroot supporters! Bless their little hearts, they show up to everything.
You're right in saying that one of the flaws of the caucus system is that its low turnout favors the most highly motivated voters, who are almost always the most ideologically extreme. In Ron Paul's case, he's frankly putting on an amazingly visible campaign, and certainly has highly motivated supporters. But the only thing that will enable him to turn that into a top four finish in the Caucuses would be if the bubonic plague struck Iowa on Christmas Day.
Now that Brownback's out, all he has to do is do as good as he did in the straw poll. :)
P.S. May Iowa avoid the plague on Christmas or any other day.
Which would leave Paul exactly where he was in the Straw Poll: fifth, which isn't nearly good enough to survive. Certainly Romney, Thompson, Huckabee and Giuliani will finish ahead of him.
My hunch is that it will be Romney, Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani, in that order (unless Thompson becomes a great deal more visible in this state in the next month to six weeks, that is; if he does, he'll likely finish ahead of Huckabee).
Brownback was never a factor. After Iowa, Paul will be toast. There's just no way he finishes in the top four.