Caucus Day Minus Seven: If you have trouble buying Iowa, will paying a higher price work?
Mitt Romney took a seemingly insurmountable lead here in Iowa a year or so ago by spending an astronomical amount of money largely raised by folks very anxious that the United States have a Mormon president.
For nearly a year, Mitt Romney has been marketed to Iowans on TV to the point that we automatically look for him on the shelves every time we visit Hy-Vee or Dahl's or Wal-Mart. Without the deep pockets provided by Romney's wealthy and highly motivated contributers, it's hard to see how Mitt could have established himself as a leading candidate here in Iowa. He'd almost certainly be in the same place here that he's been all along in the national polls: somewhere around fourth or fifth, with no real prospect of playing with the big boys.
But even the big bucks and the omnipresence on the TV screen wasn't enough to keep a relatively obscure and underfunded guy from Arkansas named Mike Huckabee from catching and passing him here in Iowa. Mitt- unable to close the sale on the basis of his own merits, and reduced to running down his competition (chiefly Huckabee, but also of late John McCain, who's threatening Mitt's win-early-at-all-costs into an utter disaster by doing to Romney in New Hampshire what Huckabee seems poised to do in Iowa), has reverted to form: yet another massive TV buy in an attempt to saturate the airwaves in the last week before the caucuses here in Iowa.
Huckabee- whom Romney supporters assured us when he first took the lead in Iowa couldn't sustain a campaign for the duration because he lacked resources- has apparently come up with enough resources to be spending about two-thirds as much. My guess: no sale, Mitt.
Meanwhile, two new national polls say that Mike Huckabee has (once again) passed Rudy Giuliani for first place among Republicans nationally.
The newest AP/Yahoo poll shows Huckabee with 22% to 21% for Giuliani, 14% for John McCain, 13% for Mitt Romney, and 11% for Fred Thompson.
No word on Ron Paul.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen's daily national tracking poll has Huckabee leading the pack with 20%,Giuliani second with 18%, McCain third with 14%, Romney fourth with 13%, and Thompson running last among the serious candidates with 11%.
Though at variance with the other national polls in this regard, Rasmussen's tracking poll has head Huckabee leading the pack ever since December 17- curiously, the date on which a single, anomylous one-day poll gave the Romney campaign hope by showing Mitt and Rudy tied for first, at 20%.
Romney has returned to his normal, less exalted position in most national polls since then, while Giuliani holds on to a small lead over Huckabee.
With the exception of one poll showing Giuliani up by eleven points, that lead has consistently been one of only one or two percent.
Meanwhile, Strategic Vision's new poll gives Huckabee only a two point lead here in Iowa, lowering his average lead to only three percent. The impression continues to grow of a down-to-the-wire battle for first between Huckabee and Romney in this state, with organization (a factor which favors Romney) possibly tipping the result.
Iowans are historically apt to surprise everyone on Caucus Night, so too much attention should probably not be paid to the polls. A huge percentage of the state's Republicans will make up their minds when they get to their caucuses. But insofar as the polls mean anything at all, watching the Huckabee lead grow or shrink in the coming days may well give a clue as to which way this thing is going to break.
That is, unless somebody like Thompson or McCain comes out of nowhere and surprises everybody.
HT: Patrick Ruffini, Race42008
For nearly a year, Mitt Romney has been marketed to Iowans on TV to the point that we automatically look for him on the shelves every time we visit Hy-Vee or Dahl's or Wal-Mart. Without the deep pockets provided by Romney's wealthy and highly motivated contributers, it's hard to see how Mitt could have established himself as a leading candidate here in Iowa. He'd almost certainly be in the same place here that he's been all along in the national polls: somewhere around fourth or fifth, with no real prospect of playing with the big boys.
But even the big bucks and the omnipresence on the TV screen wasn't enough to keep a relatively obscure and underfunded guy from Arkansas named Mike Huckabee from catching and passing him here in Iowa. Mitt- unable to close the sale on the basis of his own merits, and reduced to running down his competition (chiefly Huckabee, but also of late John McCain, who's threatening Mitt's win-early-at-all-costs into an utter disaster by doing to Romney in New Hampshire what Huckabee seems poised to do in Iowa), has reverted to form: yet another massive TV buy in an attempt to saturate the airwaves in the last week before the caucuses here in Iowa.
Huckabee- whom Romney supporters assured us when he first took the lead in Iowa couldn't sustain a campaign for the duration because he lacked resources- has apparently come up with enough resources to be spending about two-thirds as much. My guess: no sale, Mitt.
Meanwhile, two new national polls say that Mike Huckabee has (once again) passed Rudy Giuliani for first place among Republicans nationally.
The newest AP/Yahoo poll shows Huckabee with 22% to 21% for Giuliani, 14% for John McCain, 13% for Mitt Romney, and 11% for Fred Thompson.
No word on Ron Paul.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen's daily national tracking poll has Huckabee leading the pack with 20%,Giuliani second with 18%, McCain third with 14%, Romney fourth with 13%, and Thompson running last among the serious candidates with 11%.
Though at variance with the other national polls in this regard, Rasmussen's tracking poll has head Huckabee leading the pack ever since December 17- curiously, the date on which a single, anomylous one-day poll gave the Romney campaign hope by showing Mitt and Rudy tied for first, at 20%.
Romney has returned to his normal, less exalted position in most national polls since then, while Giuliani holds on to a small lead over Huckabee.
With the exception of one poll showing Giuliani up by eleven points, that lead has consistently been one of only one or two percent.
Meanwhile, Strategic Vision's new poll gives Huckabee only a two point lead here in Iowa, lowering his average lead to only three percent. The impression continues to grow of a down-to-the-wire battle for first between Huckabee and Romney in this state, with organization (a factor which favors Romney) possibly tipping the result.
Iowans are historically apt to surprise everyone on Caucus Night, so too much attention should probably not be paid to the polls. A huge percentage of the state's Republicans will make up their minds when they get to their caucuses. But insofar as the polls mean anything at all, watching the Huckabee lead grow or shrink in the coming days may well give a clue as to which way this thing is going to break.
That is, unless somebody like Thompson or McCain comes out of nowhere and surprises everybody.
HT: Patrick Ruffini, Race42008
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