Caucus eve: What will happen tomorrow
...nobody knows.
For the last week we've had a mixed bag in the polls, not only for Republicans, but for Democrats as well. Any of the Democrats could win, but my hunch is that's bad news for Hillary.
I'm going to guess that Edwards will pull off an upset. Just a feeling I have. Obama second- and Hillary third.
Contrary to the impression Romney supporters have been trying to give for the last week or so, there is no clear trend either away from Huckabee or toward Romney. The variable here is the nuts-and-bolts caucus night operation. Huckabee's supporters are far more enthusiastic, and in many cases far more loyal; they'll get to the caucus just fine.
But Romney will do better than fine. His organization is simply unmatched. If you're an Iowan who has expressed an interest in supporting Romney, they will get you to the caucus place.
In a race this close, it may come down to Huckabee enthusiasm vs. Romney organization. I may be a cynic, but organization would be the way I'd bet.
Bottom line: whatever poll you choose to believe, add five points to Romney's score for the ground game.
If you go with the Des Moines Register's poll that shows Huck up 32-26, look for a one point Huckabee victory.
If you don't believe that Huckabee has a lead of four points or more in actual preference among potential caucus goers (and I don't), look for a Romney victory.
For the last week we've had a mixed bag in the polls, not only for Republicans, but for Democrats as well. Any of the Democrats could win, but my hunch is that's bad news for Hillary.
I'm going to guess that Edwards will pull off an upset. Just a feeling I have. Obama second- and Hillary third.
Contrary to the impression Romney supporters have been trying to give for the last week or so, there is no clear trend either away from Huckabee or toward Romney. The variable here is the nuts-and-bolts caucus night operation. Huckabee's supporters are far more enthusiastic, and in many cases far more loyal; they'll get to the caucus just fine.
But Romney will do better than fine. His organization is simply unmatched. If you're an Iowan who has expressed an interest in supporting Romney, they will get you to the caucus place.
In a race this close, it may come down to Huckabee enthusiasm vs. Romney organization. I may be a cynic, but organization would be the way I'd bet.
Bottom line: whatever poll you choose to believe, add five points to Romney's score for the ground game.
If you go with the Des Moines Register's poll that shows Huck up 32-26, look for a one point Huckabee victory.
If you don't believe that Huckabee has a lead of four points or more in actual preference among potential caucus goers (and I don't), look for a Romney victory.
Comments