I take it back: Huckabee wins tonight
The final three polls here in Iowa were all taken in the last three days. One was by the American Research Corporation, one by Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby, and one by Insider Advantage.
They show Mike Huckabee leading Mitt Romney by five percent, six percent, and six percent, respectively. The RCP Average has gone from Huckabee by .07 to Huckabee by 3.0 overnight.
You don't get three polls that size taken over the same period with results that similar unless the result is pretty accurate. That the race is breaking for Huckabee seems indisputable- and by margins big enough that, along with the reasonably good weather here in Iowa today, the advantage in organization Romney has will probably not be the decisive factor I expected.
Mike Huckabee will finish first in Iowa tonight, with Mitt Romney second and John McCain third.
ADDENDUM: Given the way the wind seems to be blowing on the other side of the fence, I'm also going to change my mind and predict that Barak Obama, and not John Edwards, will win the Democratic caucuses.
Obama, Edwards, and Hillary, in that order.
HT: Real Clear Politics
They show Mike Huckabee leading Mitt Romney by five percent, six percent, and six percent, respectively. The RCP Average has gone from Huckabee by .07 to Huckabee by 3.0 overnight.
You don't get three polls that size taken over the same period with results that similar unless the result is pretty accurate. That the race is breaking for Huckabee seems indisputable- and by margins big enough that, along with the reasonably good weather here in Iowa today, the advantage in organization Romney has will probably not be the decisive factor I expected.
Mike Huckabee will finish first in Iowa tonight, with Mitt Romney second and John McCain third.
ADDENDUM: Given the way the wind seems to be blowing on the other side of the fence, I'm also going to change my mind and predict that Barak Obama, and not John Edwards, will win the Democratic caucuses.
Obama, Edwards, and Hillary, in that order.
HT: Real Clear Politics
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