In the aftermath of the caucuses IV: Where do we go from here?
Next Tuesday. January 8. The New Hampshire Primary.
Most polls show John McCain leading, with Mitt Romney second and Mike Huckabee fourth.
McCain has come right out and said that he needs to win in New Hampshire. Romney probably wouldn't pull out of the campaign if he lost in New Hampshire, but his candidacy would be fatally wounded.
If McCain wins, he arguably becomes the front-runner. If Romney wins, he's back in business.
Contrary to what everybody seems to think, Mike Huckabee doesn't have to do anything in particular in New Hampshire, other than not fall flat on his face. A respectable fourth is fine. Because, two weeks later, we have
Tuesday, January 15. The Michigan Primary. The RCP Consensus has Romney and Huckabee neck-and-neck- with McCain within striking distance, and Rudy Giuliani not far behind.
If Romney loses New Hampshire, I think he'll lose Michigan. That might well be the coup de grace. If Huckabee wins- and he just might- Iowa is no longer a fluke, a state that happened to have a peculiar desire to buy what Huck was selling. If McCain wins in both New Hampshire and Michigan, he'll be the front runner. Same with Huck, if he wins in Michigan, pretty much regardless of what he does in New Hampshire (he'll probably place third).
Romney had better win both New Hampshire and Michigan if he's going to remain viable.
Nevada's caucus on January 19, the following Saturday, will probably either give Romney a slight boost (if he's still viable), or provide Rudy with his first, small victory. But South Carolina holds its primary the same day, and Huckabee leads there by a consensus six or seven points.
Then comes Florida on January 29. Giuliani and Huckabee lead, with Romney, at the moment, not prohibitively far behind.
And then, "Tsunami Tuesday," February 5.
Obviously, the prospects in each of these states will be affected by what happens in the states which proceed them. The race on "Tsunami Tuesday-" or even in Florida on the 29th- will probably look nothing like the race today. And New Hampshire will determine a great deal. A McCain defeat probably means the end of his campaign; a Romney defeat will damage his candidacy so badly that it will have to fall back on Michigan as a firewall to stay alive. But Huckabee- who only weeks ago was being said by Romney supporters to lack a "believable path to the nomination-" has not only won in Iowa, but has excellent prospects of winning in South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida as well.
And if he does, he'll probably be the nominee.
For McCain, everything hinges on New Hampshire. If he wins there, his stock will go up elsewhere. And Romney is already on the ropes; a defeat in New Hampshire will leave his candidacy fighting for its life. He could then not sustain a defeat in Michigan and remain credible.
Fred Thompson doesn't have many prospects anywhere. But he did better than expected in Iowa- and if he keeps it up, he could be at some point the logical candidate to unite disgruntled movement conservatives against, say, Huckabee or McCain. And we'll know on "Tsunami Tuesday" whether Giuliani's strategy of skipping the early states will work for him or- as I personally expect- will backfire.
It's going to be a wild ride- and it's only just begun!
Most polls show John McCain leading, with Mitt Romney second and Mike Huckabee fourth.
McCain has come right out and said that he needs to win in New Hampshire. Romney probably wouldn't pull out of the campaign if he lost in New Hampshire, but his candidacy would be fatally wounded.
If McCain wins, he arguably becomes the front-runner. If Romney wins, he's back in business.
Contrary to what everybody seems to think, Mike Huckabee doesn't have to do anything in particular in New Hampshire, other than not fall flat on his face. A respectable fourth is fine. Because, two weeks later, we have
Tuesday, January 15. The Michigan Primary. The RCP Consensus has Romney and Huckabee neck-and-neck- with McCain within striking distance, and Rudy Giuliani not far behind.
If Romney loses New Hampshire, I think he'll lose Michigan. That might well be the coup de grace. If Huckabee wins- and he just might- Iowa is no longer a fluke, a state that happened to have a peculiar desire to buy what Huck was selling. If McCain wins in both New Hampshire and Michigan, he'll be the front runner. Same with Huck, if he wins in Michigan, pretty much regardless of what he does in New Hampshire (he'll probably place third).
Romney had better win both New Hampshire and Michigan if he's going to remain viable.
Nevada's caucus on January 19, the following Saturday, will probably either give Romney a slight boost (if he's still viable), or provide Rudy with his first, small victory. But South Carolina holds its primary the same day, and Huckabee leads there by a consensus six or seven points.
Then comes Florida on January 29. Giuliani and Huckabee lead, with Romney, at the moment, not prohibitively far behind.
And then, "Tsunami Tuesday," February 5.
Obviously, the prospects in each of these states will be affected by what happens in the states which proceed them. The race on "Tsunami Tuesday-" or even in Florida on the 29th- will probably look nothing like the race today. And New Hampshire will determine a great deal. A McCain defeat probably means the end of his campaign; a Romney defeat will damage his candidacy so badly that it will have to fall back on Michigan as a firewall to stay alive. But Huckabee- who only weeks ago was being said by Romney supporters to lack a "believable path to the nomination-" has not only won in Iowa, but has excellent prospects of winning in South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida as well.
And if he does, he'll probably be the nominee.
For McCain, everything hinges on New Hampshire. If he wins there, his stock will go up elsewhere. And Romney is already on the ropes; a defeat in New Hampshire will leave his candidacy fighting for its life. He could then not sustain a defeat in Michigan and remain credible.
Fred Thompson doesn't have many prospects anywhere. But he did better than expected in Iowa- and if he keeps it up, he could be at some point the logical candidate to unite disgruntled movement conservatives against, say, Huckabee or McCain. And we'll know on "Tsunami Tuesday" whether Giuliani's strategy of skipping the early states will work for him or- as I personally expect- will backfire.
It's going to be a wild ride- and it's only just begun!
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