Only candidates in trouble go looking for excuses
Mitt Romney is fighting for his political life in the New Hampshire Primary on Tuesday, and his supporters are casting about for excuses to explain away his defeat at the hands of Mike Huckabee here in Iowa earlier this week.
The standard excuse they seem to have hit upon is that it was the overwhelming support of the "Evangelicals" that gave Huckabee his Iowa victory, and that since there are fewer "Evangelicals" elsewhere, Iowa was merely a fluke that really doesn't count.
Of course, that doesn't explain Romney's troubles in New Hampshire.I suppose if- as I expect- John McCain defeats Romney in New Hampshire Tuesday (and McCain's lead there is growing), it will turn out that the Granite State is just home to entirely too many Episcopalians, or war heroes, or short men with white hair! While the strong "Evangelical" vote doubtless helped Huckabee significantly, using that as an excuse is a cop-out, as the Romney forces may learn to their sorrow in a matter of days.
When a candidate is rejected by the voters, finding fault with the voters is certainly one option. I think it was Morris Udall in 1976 who jocularly began his concession speech in one of the Democratic primaries with, "The people have spoken- the bastards!"
On the other hand, resiliant and successful campaigns and candidates are more likely to take a good, long look at themselves. There can be no doubt, for example, that Gov. Romney's essentially negative campaign did him far more damage than the religious affiliation of the man who defeated him.
In fact, Michael Medved takes a close look at the attempt to explain away the Iowa result here. He points out that- the carefully-nurtured myth to the contrary- 54% of Iowa "Evangelicals" voted against Mike Huckabee (though not, obviously, all for Mitt Romney). I wonder what percentage of Iowa Mormons voted against Mitt Romney?
Moreover, Medved's crunching of the numbers suggests that if religious bias was operating against either candidate in Iowa, it was more likely anti-evangelical bias operating against Huckabee than anti-Mormon bias operating against Romney. After all, that's merely the opposite spin to the very numbers the people trying to give Romney an excuse in the allegedly monolithic "Evangelical" vote for Huck have been using!
The next important tests for Huckabee will be Michigan- where he's breathing down Romney's neck (John McCain is also a factor there; either Romney or McCain will cease to be a serious player after New Hampshire). While I'm sure those Dutch Reformed enclaves in Western Michigan will help Huck, I really don't think they explain his position in Michigan polls. In any eventSouth Carolina, which comes next, is very much the Bible Belt- as is the entire South, a region Huckabee may well (perhaps partially because of his "Evangelical" roots) be in a position to sweep.
So even to the extent that the evangelical vote was responsible for Huckabee's victory in Iowa, that fact gives him cause for a great deal more optimism going forward than Mitt Romney has any basis for on any ground whatsoever.
Did the "Evangelical" vote help Huckabee? Without a doubt. Did it decide the race? Hardly- and trying to make it an excuse has the ring of a desperate ploy on the part of the supporters of a candidate who simply wasn't able to make his case to the voters. And especially after that American Research Group poll giving McCain a 14-point lead over Romney in New Hampshire with only three days left, even if the excuse-makers had a point, I'd rather be Mike Huckabee at this point in the campaign than Mitt Romney.
ADDENDUM: I don't think Mitt's victory in Wyoming today is going to be enough to save him.
After all, the only reason Mitt won Wyoming is because there are so many Mormons there! ;)
ADDENDUM II: The quotation ascribed to Mo Udall (who did actually use the line) actually originated with political prankster Dick Tuck- who once painted the wooden benches half an hour before a Goldwater rally, and had a group of pregnant women great the 37th President while bearing signs which read, "NIXON'S THE ONE!"
ADDENDUM III: I take that snide remark in the first addendum back.
Turns out that Wyoming- while the third most Mormon state in the Union- isn't that Mormon after all. Only 10.10% of the population is LDS.
The standard excuse they seem to have hit upon is that it was the overwhelming support of the "Evangelicals" that gave Huckabee his Iowa victory, and that since there are fewer "Evangelicals" elsewhere, Iowa was merely a fluke that really doesn't count.
Of course, that doesn't explain Romney's troubles in New Hampshire.I suppose if- as I expect- John McCain defeats Romney in New Hampshire Tuesday (and McCain's lead there is growing), it will turn out that the Granite State is just home to entirely too many Episcopalians, or war heroes, or short men with white hair! While the strong "Evangelical" vote doubtless helped Huckabee significantly, using that as an excuse is a cop-out, as the Romney forces may learn to their sorrow in a matter of days.
When a candidate is rejected by the voters, finding fault with the voters is certainly one option. I think it was Morris Udall in 1976 who jocularly began his concession speech in one of the Democratic primaries with, "The people have spoken- the bastards!"
On the other hand, resiliant and successful campaigns and candidates are more likely to take a good, long look at themselves. There can be no doubt, for example, that Gov. Romney's essentially negative campaign did him far more damage than the religious affiliation of the man who defeated him.
In fact, Michael Medved takes a close look at the attempt to explain away the Iowa result here. He points out that- the carefully-nurtured myth to the contrary- 54% of Iowa "Evangelicals" voted against Mike Huckabee (though not, obviously, all for Mitt Romney). I wonder what percentage of Iowa Mormons voted against Mitt Romney?
Moreover, Medved's crunching of the numbers suggests that if religious bias was operating against either candidate in Iowa, it was more likely anti-evangelical bias operating against Huckabee than anti-Mormon bias operating against Romney. After all, that's merely the opposite spin to the very numbers the people trying to give Romney an excuse in the allegedly monolithic "Evangelical" vote for Huck have been using!
The next important tests for Huckabee will be Michigan- where he's breathing down Romney's neck (John McCain is also a factor there; either Romney or McCain will cease to be a serious player after New Hampshire). While I'm sure those Dutch Reformed enclaves in Western Michigan will help Huck, I really don't think they explain his position in Michigan polls. In any eventSouth Carolina, which comes next, is very much the Bible Belt- as is the entire South, a region Huckabee may well (perhaps partially because of his "Evangelical" roots) be in a position to sweep.
So even to the extent that the evangelical vote was responsible for Huckabee's victory in Iowa, that fact gives him cause for a great deal more optimism going forward than Mitt Romney has any basis for on any ground whatsoever.
Did the "Evangelical" vote help Huckabee? Without a doubt. Did it decide the race? Hardly- and trying to make it an excuse has the ring of a desperate ploy on the part of the supporters of a candidate who simply wasn't able to make his case to the voters. And especially after that American Research Group poll giving McCain a 14-point lead over Romney in New Hampshire with only three days left, even if the excuse-makers had a point, I'd rather be Mike Huckabee at this point in the campaign than Mitt Romney.
ADDENDUM: I don't think Mitt's victory in Wyoming today is going to be enough to save him.
After all, the only reason Mitt won Wyoming is because there are so many Mormons there! ;)
ADDENDUM II: The quotation ascribed to Mo Udall (who did actually use the line) actually originated with political prankster Dick Tuck- who once painted the wooden benches half an hour before a Goldwater rally, and had a group of pregnant women great the 37th President while bearing signs which read, "NIXON'S THE ONE!"
ADDENDUM III: I take that snide remark in the first addendum back.
Turns out that Wyoming- while the third most Mormon state in the Union- isn't that Mormon after all. Only 10.10% of the population is LDS.
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