Romney's win throws the race into turmoil
All right, Mitt Romney's victory in the state where he grew up yesterday was the only one he's been able to manage anywhere. And OK, the Chameleon Candidate had to morphed from his usual guise as a social conservative into his more natural color as an economic troubleshooter in order to do it. And yes, there was a certain amount of demagoguery in holding out hope to unemployed Michigan auto workers that jobs in their industry which have long since gone overseas are going to come back any time soon. Nobody ever said that Mitt Romney doesn't know how to pander.
But he still beat the national leader, John McCain, by nine points in a major state. Although it remains far too early to matter much, he further increased his lead in the delegate count. And most important, he saved his own candidacy.
As one of the three candidates who have won big races so far, Romney remains a major player. More than that, his delegate lead- early as it is- even makes it possible to make a shaky case that he's the front runner now (which he will actually become only when he occupies the place McCain now holds in the national polls. He'll actually deserve that status when these numbers look better than these.
Fat chance.
In any event, there's no doubt that Romney's victory throws the Republican race- which only a couple of days ago looked like it might well turn into a rout, with McCain sweeping all before him- into a muddled mess once again. On Saturday, the South Carolina primary and the Nevada Caucus will be held. McCain is currently favored- surprisingly- over Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, while Romney has about a six point lead over McCain in Nevada.
All of which leads up to the next big primary state: Florida, in which McCain and Rudy Giuliani are currently tied, with Huckabee- followed closely by Romney- not far behind.
Florida on January 29 will be huge. But its new state motto really ought to be Louis XV's famous prediction, "After me, the deluge." On February 5 comes "Tsunami Tuesday," which will effectively be our first national primary. No fewer than 23 states will hold their caucuses and primaries that day. By the time the votes are counted, no fewer than forty percent of the delegates to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota will have been selected.
The Romney victory reinforces a thought that's been floating around in my head for the past week or so. I wrote a while back that we appeared to be headed for our first brokered convention since Tom Dewey finally defeated Bob Taft, Harold Stassen, Arthur Vandenberg, and Earl Warren on the third ballot at the Republican Nomination in Philadelphia at 1948. Now, I wonder.
I keep thinking about 1972, when a horribly mismanaged Democratic convention showed the nation a Democratic party in utter chaos, so incapable of administering even its own internal affairs that the nominee's acceptance speech was delayed until three AM, when the nation was asleep. The Republicans made effective use of that as a campaign issue that year: if the Democrats couldn't even manage their own convention, how could they expect to manage the affairs of the nation?
We've become so used to first ballot nominations since 1948 that I strongly suspect that if the convention at St. Paul goes multiple ballots, the Democrats will try to turn the tables- arguing that if the Republicans couldn't agree on the eventual nominee on the first ballot, it just goes to show that he's at best just one poor choice out of several. And I think it will probably get some traction, unfair as it may be.
I think now that whatever wheeling and dealing takes place will happen between Tsunami Tuesday and the opening of the convention on September 1. The candidate who emerges from Tsunami Tuesday with the most delegates- especially if it's by a relatively large margin- will find himself in a commanding enough position to most likely grab the lion's share of the sixty percent of the delegates who will be selected thereafter. I think the leading candidates and their managers are smart enough to figure out that whatever damage a brokered convention might do could be contained by helping that momentum along, and cutting some sort of deal to see to it that the leader as the convention approaches has the votes to get the nomination on the first ballot.
Or the identities of the candidates might dictate a somewhat different outcome. What Tuesday's result in Michigan probably means is that we have a good idea who the three men who will get the nod will be. I don't expect Mitt Romney to be able to maintain his delegate lead that long, but if he does, he'd better win an outright majority. I can well imagine John McCain and Mike Huckabee- who like each other, and bitterly dislike Romney- cutting some sort of a deal to vault one or the other ahead of Mitt.
On the other hand, I have a very difficult time imagining either McCain or Huckabee being willing to do business with Romney, given the bad blood that has arisen over Romney's negative campaigns against them.
Rudy Giuliani remains a wild card at this point; a victory in Florida would instantly mean that there would be four viable candidates. And while Fred Thompson has been unable to do much anywhere, he's surprisingly strong in the South, and could make inroads. Thompson- unlike Romney, McCain, Huckabee or Giuliani- would be a natural compromise candidate acceptable to pretty much everybody in the party. If Thompson can simply remain viable, he could be around to pick up all the marbles at the end.
All in all, the most fascinating presidential race the Republican party has staged in my lifetime got another plot twist Tuesday, and it will be fascinating to see how the drama turns out.
But he still beat the national leader, John McCain, by nine points in a major state. Although it remains far too early to matter much, he further increased his lead in the delegate count. And most important, he saved his own candidacy.
As one of the three candidates who have won big races so far, Romney remains a major player. More than that, his delegate lead- early as it is- even makes it possible to make a shaky case that he's the front runner now (which he will actually become only when he occupies the place McCain now holds in the national polls. He'll actually deserve that status when these numbers look better than these.
Fat chance.
In any event, there's no doubt that Romney's victory throws the Republican race- which only a couple of days ago looked like it might well turn into a rout, with McCain sweeping all before him- into a muddled mess once again. On Saturday, the South Carolina primary and the Nevada Caucus will be held. McCain is currently favored- surprisingly- over Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, while Romney has about a six point lead over McCain in Nevada.
All of which leads up to the next big primary state: Florida, in which McCain and Rudy Giuliani are currently tied, with Huckabee- followed closely by Romney- not far behind.
Florida on January 29 will be huge. But its new state motto really ought to be Louis XV's famous prediction, "After me, the deluge." On February 5 comes "Tsunami Tuesday," which will effectively be our first national primary. No fewer than 23 states will hold their caucuses and primaries that day. By the time the votes are counted, no fewer than forty percent of the delegates to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota will have been selected.
The Romney victory reinforces a thought that's been floating around in my head for the past week or so. I wrote a while back that we appeared to be headed for our first brokered convention since Tom Dewey finally defeated Bob Taft, Harold Stassen, Arthur Vandenberg, and Earl Warren on the third ballot at the Republican Nomination in Philadelphia at 1948. Now, I wonder.
I keep thinking about 1972, when a horribly mismanaged Democratic convention showed the nation a Democratic party in utter chaos, so incapable of administering even its own internal affairs that the nominee's acceptance speech was delayed until three AM, when the nation was asleep. The Republicans made effective use of that as a campaign issue that year: if the Democrats couldn't even manage their own convention, how could they expect to manage the affairs of the nation?
We've become so used to first ballot nominations since 1948 that I strongly suspect that if the convention at St. Paul goes multiple ballots, the Democrats will try to turn the tables- arguing that if the Republicans couldn't agree on the eventual nominee on the first ballot, it just goes to show that he's at best just one poor choice out of several. And I think it will probably get some traction, unfair as it may be.
I think now that whatever wheeling and dealing takes place will happen between Tsunami Tuesday and the opening of the convention on September 1. The candidate who emerges from Tsunami Tuesday with the most delegates- especially if it's by a relatively large margin- will find himself in a commanding enough position to most likely grab the lion's share of the sixty percent of the delegates who will be selected thereafter. I think the leading candidates and their managers are smart enough to figure out that whatever damage a brokered convention might do could be contained by helping that momentum along, and cutting some sort of deal to see to it that the leader as the convention approaches has the votes to get the nomination on the first ballot.
Or the identities of the candidates might dictate a somewhat different outcome. What Tuesday's result in Michigan probably means is that we have a good idea who the three men who will get the nod will be. I don't expect Mitt Romney to be able to maintain his delegate lead that long, but if he does, he'd better win an outright majority. I can well imagine John McCain and Mike Huckabee- who like each other, and bitterly dislike Romney- cutting some sort of a deal to vault one or the other ahead of Mitt.
On the other hand, I have a very difficult time imagining either McCain or Huckabee being willing to do business with Romney, given the bad blood that has arisen over Romney's negative campaigns against them.
Rudy Giuliani remains a wild card at this point; a victory in Florida would instantly mean that there would be four viable candidates. And while Fred Thompson has been unable to do much anywhere, he's surprisingly strong in the South, and could make inroads. Thompson- unlike Romney, McCain, Huckabee or Giuliani- would be a natural compromise candidate acceptable to pretty much everybody in the party. If Thompson can simply remain viable, he could be around to pick up all the marbles at the end.
All in all, the most fascinating presidential race the Republican party has staged in my lifetime got another plot twist Tuesday, and it will be fascinating to see how the drama turns out.
Comments