The shape of things to come
Barack Obama is going to be elected president in a few weeks, quite conceivably by a landslide. I wish it were otherwise. I wish it were possible to prevent, because I think that we, as a nation, are going to sorely regret it. But I don't think at this point that it can be avoided.
The reasons are numerous, ranging from the numerous failures of the Bush administration in foreign policy and economics (many which at this point even long-term Bushies such as yours truly find hard to avoid conceding, without disregarding the patent absurdity and even dishonesty of much that Mr. Bush's critics take as gospel) to the normal rhythms of American political life, which rarely in the modern age have admited of a single political party winning the presidency three times in a row.
This is an historic election. Not only will it mark the election of the first African-American president, but it will be the first time the northern, liberal wing of the Democratic party has actually succeeded in electing a president since John F. Kennedy in 1960. And that, of course, was in an age in which "liberal" was merely a relative term; JFK's foreign policy bore a much closer resemblance to that of Ronald Reagan than to that of George McGovern.
Yes, at long last, this election will mark the triumph of the McGovernite tendency in the Democratic party. There are many who resist the implications of Obama's belated discovery that Jeremiah Wright's American bashing was in any way objectionable, but the fact remains that nothing in Obama's 20-year membership in Wright's church suggests particular qualms about the far left political gospel being preached from the pulpit. Obama's Senate voting record is, indeed, the furthest Left of any member of that body, his rhetorical position on social issues (as well as not altogether reassuring explanations of controversial votes on social issues while in the Illinois legislature) all place him on the extreme left of the electoral spectrum. Still, it should be admitted that his positions on matters of national security as articulated in the last debate are reassuring. There seems even cause to hope that he might vary from his determination to turn victory into Iraq into defeat through a premature withdrawal if the consequences our military leaders warn of seem imminent.
That Obama will govern from the center- more or less- I do not doubt. He is not a stupid man. He will endeavor to consolidate the new-found viability of the Democratic party's left wing, as well as of the party itself, rather than push too hard for the agenda he's spend his life advancing. Though there are those predicting that this will be a sea-change election, ushering in a new era of Democratic dominance of the national political sceen (and there are indeed strong demographic reasons to suspect that; the growth of Washington's overwhelmingly Democratic collar suburbs, for example, seem likely to turn Virginia into a blue state for the foreseeable future) I remain skeptical about Obama's chances of re-election in 2012.
After eight years of name calling, slander, and carping, the Democrats now will be expected to govern- and to deal with a range of problems, from the condition of the economy to national security, which even a party better equiped ideologically would have a hard time coping with over the course of the next four years. As I've said before, my sense is that 2008, like 1976, is a "booby trapped" election whose winner's long-term electoral prospects would be far better served by losing.
In the meantime, the mainstream media- "in the bag" for Obama as they have never been for a previous national political figure, even Jack Kennedy- will continue to report politics using the same double-standard that has characterized their one-sided handling of the current campaign. Failures and scandals in the Obama administration will be downplayed or explained away, if they are reported at all. If, indeed, Barak Obama is a one-term president, it won't be because of a lack of effort by the media in restricting the information available to the electorate, insofar as possible, to that which is favorable to The Cause.
Dismayed by accusations that the Bush administration has used intimidation and political muscle against its opponents? Watch the upcoming Obama administration's systematic attempts at political intimidation not only of political opponents, but of the media- and be amazed. It's a pattern already well established; I see no reason to doubt that it will continue once Obama is in power.
Be prepared for the arrival of a cult of personality the like of which we have never seen in this country. The You Tube clips I've posted in the last two days featuring what can only be described as an Obama Youth meeting and a group of children politically activist parents have recruited to sing the candidate's praises in ways generally associated with dictators are not meant to suggest that Obama is in any way comparable to the various Dear and Glorious Leaders on whose behalf children most often chant devotion and to whom they sing their sweet praises. But such things are not generally practiced by supporters of democratic political figures, and the emergence of that sort of cult of personality is ground both for legitimate criticism and even legitimate worry.
Expect that for the next four years any opposition to administration policies and certainly any criticism of Obama personally will be regularly and loudly equated with racism. Numerous Obama supporters in and out of the media have already made the amazing claim that only on the basis of racism is support for John McCain over Barack Obama plausible. False accusations of racism are a favorite tactic by which the far left seeks to deflect attention from issues it would rather we not consider. Given the character of Obama's core support, expect that tactic to flourish.
This is the hour of the arrogant, the self-righteous, and the hater. This is the Time of the Moonbat. Of course, Obama's support includes very many Americans who do not fit into that category. Some even regard him as a moderate. And in important ways, he may even govern as one. If the truth be told, Ronald Reagan had a history every bit as extreme as Obama's. Perhaps Obama, too, will surprise us.
But make no mistake: the election of Barack Obama will mark the ascension of the extreme Left in American political culture to a degree utterly unprecedented in the history of the Republic. For all his talk of healing wounds and merging the Blue and the Red into a homogenous Purple, Obama is too far to the left to be a healer- a role John McCain would have been better situated ideologically to fill- and Colin Powell perhaps best of all.
Along with a great many decent and even reasonable Americans, Obama's supporters include too many people filled with too much hate far too prominently for reconciliation to be anything but a rhetorical theme for the new administration. And it's a shame. There are far too many haters on the Right, too; if George W. Bush was treated disgracefully by his political opponents during the past eight years- and he was- then so was Bill Clinton during the previous eight (though I must admit that I still don't see the relevance of the subject matter of perjury to the inherent seriousness of the crime).
Healing, unfortunately, will have to wait for another day. For myself, I plan to make my personal contribution by studiously avoiding implausible claims that Obama and the Democrats stole this upcoming election, or otherwise behaving like a loser as sore as so many of the Democrats have been after the last two elections.
Perhaps if enough Republicans are gracious in defeat, Democrats will be shamed in a way their own childish petulance has did not shame them after 2000 and 2004, and at least it might be possible to begin the Obama era with a moment of civility.
The reasons are numerous, ranging from the numerous failures of the Bush administration in foreign policy and economics (many which at this point even long-term Bushies such as yours truly find hard to avoid conceding, without disregarding the patent absurdity and even dishonesty of much that Mr. Bush's critics take as gospel) to the normal rhythms of American political life, which rarely in the modern age have admited of a single political party winning the presidency three times in a row.
This is an historic election. Not only will it mark the election of the first African-American president, but it will be the first time the northern, liberal wing of the Democratic party has actually succeeded in electing a president since John F. Kennedy in 1960. And that, of course, was in an age in which "liberal" was merely a relative term; JFK's foreign policy bore a much closer resemblance to that of Ronald Reagan than to that of George McGovern.
Yes, at long last, this election will mark the triumph of the McGovernite tendency in the Democratic party. There are many who resist the implications of Obama's belated discovery that Jeremiah Wright's American bashing was in any way objectionable, but the fact remains that nothing in Obama's 20-year membership in Wright's church suggests particular qualms about the far left political gospel being preached from the pulpit. Obama's Senate voting record is, indeed, the furthest Left of any member of that body, his rhetorical position on social issues (as well as not altogether reassuring explanations of controversial votes on social issues while in the Illinois legislature) all place him on the extreme left of the electoral spectrum. Still, it should be admitted that his positions on matters of national security as articulated in the last debate are reassuring. There seems even cause to hope that he might vary from his determination to turn victory into Iraq into defeat through a premature withdrawal if the consequences our military leaders warn of seem imminent.
That Obama will govern from the center- more or less- I do not doubt. He is not a stupid man. He will endeavor to consolidate the new-found viability of the Democratic party's left wing, as well as of the party itself, rather than push too hard for the agenda he's spend his life advancing. Though there are those predicting that this will be a sea-change election, ushering in a new era of Democratic dominance of the national political sceen (and there are indeed strong demographic reasons to suspect that; the growth of Washington's overwhelmingly Democratic collar suburbs, for example, seem likely to turn Virginia into a blue state for the foreseeable future) I remain skeptical about Obama's chances of re-election in 2012.
After eight years of name calling, slander, and carping, the Democrats now will be expected to govern- and to deal with a range of problems, from the condition of the economy to national security, which even a party better equiped ideologically would have a hard time coping with over the course of the next four years. As I've said before, my sense is that 2008, like 1976, is a "booby trapped" election whose winner's long-term electoral prospects would be far better served by losing.
In the meantime, the mainstream media- "in the bag" for Obama as they have never been for a previous national political figure, even Jack Kennedy- will continue to report politics using the same double-standard that has characterized their one-sided handling of the current campaign. Failures and scandals in the Obama administration will be downplayed or explained away, if they are reported at all. If, indeed, Barak Obama is a one-term president, it won't be because of a lack of effort by the media in restricting the information available to the electorate, insofar as possible, to that which is favorable to The Cause.
Dismayed by accusations that the Bush administration has used intimidation and political muscle against its opponents? Watch the upcoming Obama administration's systematic attempts at political intimidation not only of political opponents, but of the media- and be amazed. It's a pattern already well established; I see no reason to doubt that it will continue once Obama is in power.
Be prepared for the arrival of a cult of personality the like of which we have never seen in this country. The You Tube clips I've posted in the last two days featuring what can only be described as an Obama Youth meeting and a group of children politically activist parents have recruited to sing the candidate's praises in ways generally associated with dictators are not meant to suggest that Obama is in any way comparable to the various Dear and Glorious Leaders on whose behalf children most often chant devotion and to whom they sing their sweet praises. But such things are not generally practiced by supporters of democratic political figures, and the emergence of that sort of cult of personality is ground both for legitimate criticism and even legitimate worry.
Expect that for the next four years any opposition to administration policies and certainly any criticism of Obama personally will be regularly and loudly equated with racism. Numerous Obama supporters in and out of the media have already made the amazing claim that only on the basis of racism is support for John McCain over Barack Obama plausible. False accusations of racism are a favorite tactic by which the far left seeks to deflect attention from issues it would rather we not consider. Given the character of Obama's core support, expect that tactic to flourish.
This is the hour of the arrogant, the self-righteous, and the hater. This is the Time of the Moonbat. Of course, Obama's support includes very many Americans who do not fit into that category. Some even regard him as a moderate. And in important ways, he may even govern as one. If the truth be told, Ronald Reagan had a history every bit as extreme as Obama's. Perhaps Obama, too, will surprise us.
But make no mistake: the election of Barack Obama will mark the ascension of the extreme Left in American political culture to a degree utterly unprecedented in the history of the Republic. For all his talk of healing wounds and merging the Blue and the Red into a homogenous Purple, Obama is too far to the left to be a healer- a role John McCain would have been better situated ideologically to fill- and Colin Powell perhaps best of all.
Along with a great many decent and even reasonable Americans, Obama's supporters include too many people filled with too much hate far too prominently for reconciliation to be anything but a rhetorical theme for the new administration. And it's a shame. There are far too many haters on the Right, too; if George W. Bush was treated disgracefully by his political opponents during the past eight years- and he was- then so was Bill Clinton during the previous eight (though I must admit that I still don't see the relevance of the subject matter of perjury to the inherent seriousness of the crime).
Healing, unfortunately, will have to wait for another day. For myself, I plan to make my personal contribution by studiously avoiding implausible claims that Obama and the Democrats stole this upcoming election, or otherwise behaving like a loser as sore as so many of the Democrats have been after the last two elections.
Perhaps if enough Republicans are gracious in defeat, Democrats will be shamed in a way their own childish petulance has did not shame them after 2000 and 2004, and at least it might be possible to begin the Obama era with a moment of civility.
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