New Madrid Fault may be kaput

When I lived in St. Louis, the New Madrid Fault- source of three of the strongest earthquakes in North American history, in 1811-1812- was a major source of conversation.

The three earthquakes in question were all over eight on the Richter Scale. They changed the course of the Mississippi River, cracked plaster walls in Boston and rang church bells in Montreal. It was generally believed when I lived in Webster Groves back in the late 'Eighties that a major quake on the New Madrid site- which was said back in the 'Eighties to be overdue- would devastate both St. Louis and Memphis, Tennessee, neither of which had been built to withstand earthquakes. And since it had been such a long time since a big quake had hit on the New Madrid faultline, the conventional wisdom was that it would probably be letting loose big time at any moment.

In fact, there were a couple of small tremors when I was still in St. Louis. The image to the right compares the projected damage from a theoretical 6.8 earthquake on the New Madrid Fault to that sustained in the 6.7 magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in 1994.

But now seismologists are beginning to suspect that the New Madrid Fault may actually be shutting down. One last thing to worry about, I suppose- and one less thing to talk about over coffee at Hodge's Chili Parlor.