Hawks in six

Here's Second City Hockey's Round Table on the Hawks-Preds series.

I'm going to agree with what seems to be the consensus there that the Hawks will win, but that with a red-hot Pekka Rinne in goal for Nashville it may well take six games.

The Hawks have shown a disturbing tendency to let down, and that's frankly what worries me the most about this post-season. While they can play with anybody in the NHL, especially against good teams they seem to relax when they figure they have the game in the bag- and then, bad things happen. I remember especially that game where they led the Washington Capitals- the betting favorites to win the Cup this year- by three goals in the third period, but still managed to lose. And I'm hardly reassured by the recent game in which they led St. Louis 6-1 and won the game 6-5.

Some of the teams they'll be playing in the post season- including the Preds- may not all be in Washington's class, but they're considerably better than the Blues. The Good Guys will have to play sixty minutes of hockey every night- and above all, never presume either on the talent differential or on a lead. The Preds beat the Hawks twice this season, and are capable of pulling an upset, especially with the hottest goalie in the NHL playing for them.

But I don't think they will. The Hawks are a good enough team that even if they presume on the talent differential and manage to lose a game or two at the beginning of the series, they'll take the Preds once they buckle down. If they don't, of course, it will be a major blow to Chicago's hockey renaissance. It won't end it, of course. But in the town the Cubs play in, and one which has just seen Jay Cutler do a pretty good Rex Grossman imitation instead of leading the Ursines to glory, a first-round exit for a team as talented- and as hyped- as this year's Blackhawks would not sit well.

In fact, to keep the snowball growing (rather than merely avoiding a meltdown), the Hawks will probably have to do at least as well as they did last year, and reach the Conference Finals. I think they will.

The real question marks in my mind come when they meet the Wings (outside chance it will be the Sharks or even the Dogs, but I think not) in those Conference Finals, and hopefully an opponent I expect to be either the Caps or the Pens in the Finals.

I continue to fear the Red Wings. It would be going a bit far to say that beating them would be anywhere near as satisfying as winning the Cup, of course. But they're beginning to assume the role for me that Montreal did when I was growing up: as our most hated opponent, and the perennial obstacle to our winning it all.

Winning the division Detroit has won year after year was a great first step, but exorcising that particular ghost will mean beating them in the playoffs. But before we even get there, we'll have to bounce the Preds and probably one more opponent. Neither figures to be as big an obstacle. But each figures to be good enough that it would be a mistake to take winning either series for granted.

We know in advance that it would be a mistake to take the Preds for granted. The Blackhawks are a better team than they are, perhaps by an order of magnitude. But not enough better that they aren't a genuine threat we'd be well advised to take very seriously indeed.