NYT's Silver gives Romney a 40% chance of being the nominee

Nate Silver of The New York Times handicaps the odds of the "first tier" of 2012 GOP presidential candidates getting the nomination- and, not surprisingly, sees Mitt Romney as a strong favorite.

Silver says that "objectively," the odds of Romney's nomination strike him as being about 50/50. But concerns about the resemblance of what Tim Pawlenty has christened "Obamneycare-" the Obama-like health care plan Romney was responsible for getting passed while governor of Massachusetts- cause him to scale Romney's estimated chance of being the nominee down to 40%.

Silver lists the chances of Romney's closest competitor, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, getting the nomination at 18%. He gives Texas Gov. Rick Perry a 12.5% chance of being nominated, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann- who, he observes, is about as far from the center of the current American electorate as George McGovern was from that of 1972- about 12% chance.

Silver lists the odds against Romney's nomination at 3-2, against Pawlenty's at 9-2, against Perry's at 7-1, and against Bachmann's at 15-2.

Personally, I'm surprised that he considers Bachmann a top-tier candidate, but not former Utah Gov. and U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, who is generally regarded as President Obama's strongest prospective opponent.

HT: The Beanwalker