Register poll: Iowa Caucuses a two-man race- and a virtual tie

Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are in a virtual tie for the lead in the Iowa Caucus battle, according to a new poll by the Des Moines Register. However, Cain leads Romney by 17 points among those who say that they are certain to participate in the caucuses, and holds a 3-to-1 lead over the former Massachusetts governor among those who identify themselves as conservatives.

Romney ties with Ron Paul for the lead, however, among Iowa Republicans who say that their minds are already made up. Ron Paul is about ten points behind Cain and Romney among all respondents, with the same 12% he seems to get in virtually every Iowa poll. None of the other candidates score in double digits. Since Paul seems unlikely to advance beyond his hard-core 12%, at this point Iowa looks like a two-man race between Cain and Romney, with Cain apparently holding the stronger hand of the two.

While the race remains fluid, some observations are possible on the state of the race at this point. First, Romney cannot ignore Iowa. With numbers this strong, he cannot emulate Jon Huntsman (and John McCain last time out) by not making a major effort here. He has no choice but to make a fight of it. He has everything to gain- a victory here, coupled with a win in New Hampshire, might well virtually guarantee his nomination. And he has nothing to lose. He will almost certainly finish in the top three in Iowa, if only because the more conservative vote is so divided. And that is really all he has to do here.

Secondly, Michele Bachmann- the native Iowan who won the Ames Straw Poll last August-appears to be toast. Her campaign cannot survive even in the short term if she finishes in the middle of the pack in her native state, and her already slim chances of winning the nomination probably depend upon her winning it outright. That seems unlikely.

Rick Perry is also in big trouble. It is possible for him to stage a comeback of some sort in the southern and southwestern states, but it's hard to see a hard Right candidate like Perry getting anywhere if he bombs in Iowa- as he appears to be doing.

Despite Paul's strong showing, he has a low ceiling. In fact, he seems unlikely to rise above the 12% he gets in the Register poll, a number amazingly consistent with his numbers in past polls.  His constituency is fanatical, but limited- apparently at just about 12% of Iowa Republicans. The libertarian Texan's liberal-like positions on foreign policy have a very limited following in the Republican party, and even economic conservatives often find his economic policies extreme to the point of being bizarre. He probably won't seriously challenge for the lead, or do all that well outside Iowa. But that 12% seems even less likely to shrink than to grow- and that's enough run a comparatively strong race here. He'll probably be competitive for third place.



At least at the moment, Cain appears to be emerging as the alternative to Romney. Again, things could change once more conservative state Republican parties have their say later in the nominating process, but barring some major blunder it seems likely that Can will establish himself as the option of Republicans who find Romney unpalatable if he wins in Iowa.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's campaign, which appeared not long ago to be gasping for air, has found strong enough legs at least that the Georgian should be able to remain a credible candidate until the caucuses. He continues to get into trouble by saying what he thinks. In my opinion, his description of Rep. Paul Ryan's plan to overhaul Social Security as "radical" was right on the mark, but it was extremely unpopular among Iowa's very conservative Republicans.  He won't be a factor on the night of January 3, and he may drop out not long afterward. But look for him to stick around as a dependably independent voice in national Republican politics.

Should Cain stumble- which I don't expect- Rick Santorum is waiting in the wings. While the Register poll does not reflect it, there has been scuttlebutt here in Iowa that Santorum's campaign is gaining traction. He seems to be the second choice of a great many people who favor other candidates. I would not be surprised to see a surprisingly strong showing for the former Pennsylvania senator- and, should Cain stumble, I would not rule out a possible victory for Santorum, catapulting the social conservative into the GOP's top tier.

It's still a long way until the first week in January. But a coherent picture appears to be developing in Iowa. It appears to be a race between Cain and Romney, with Romney's chances dependent on the degree to which the other candidates can syphon votes off from Cain. But the hard Right vote is divided enough that Romney has a real chance to win simply by virtue of his status as the only relatively moderate conservative in the race.
And given a victory in Iowa for Romney, only the legendary perversity of New Hampshire's primary voters can prevent their primary from effectively anointing Romney as the nominee.

Should Romney finish second- as I suspect that he will- a victory in New Hampshire would still make him the prohibitive favorite. But it seems very clear that Romney cannot afford to play it safe by avoiding Iowa. And it is equally clear that should he finish third or worse, Romney's candidacy will be seriously damaged. Depending upon the results in Iowa, the moderate conservative mantle might very well then pass to Jon Huntsman.

A candidate-by-candidate analysis of the race by a Register analyst can be found here.