Observations on the Republican candidates and the Iowa Caucuses

I watched the Republican candidates' debate over at Drake Saturday night.  A great deal of attention was given Newt Gingrich's comment the other day that there is no such thing, historically, as a Palestinian people. Needless to say, such a remark by a potential president of the United States created quite a stir in the Middle East over the weekend, and did our nation very little good in the Arab world. Newt is correct, of course. But that doesn't change the fact that his tactless comment was a perfect example of the problem described in this pre-debate post.

Yeah, Mitt Romney blew it when he challenged Rick Perry's inaccurate quotation from Romney's book by offering to bet the Texas governor $10,000 that his version of the statement in question, rather than Perry's, was correct. Millionaires do not come off well casually offering bets of that magnitude at a time when the American people are suffering economically the way most of us are today.But I doubt the damage it did him was quite as great as the attention ABC News paid to the gaffe would indicate. I almost thought they were going to replay the exchange in slow motion, maybe with stop action.

Ron Paul did a very credible impersonation of an Earthling.

Negative ads pointing out some of Gingrich's ethical lapses and some of his less popular stands on various issues are beginning to appear here in Iowa. I still see him as the odds-on favorite to finish first in the caucuses, though I would expect his margin to come down a bit.  It would be wise to keep an eye on New Hampshire; a Gingrich victory there might almost wrap the nomination up for the former Speaker. He is very likely to win convincingly not only in Iowa, but also in South Carolina and Florida. He will be way, way out in front as far as delegates and momentum before Mitt Romney has a chance of catching up- if he ever does.

Which is bad news for the Republican party. Flat prediction: economy or no, if Gingrich is nominated, Barack Obama will be re-elected. Newt's negatives with the independents and moderates he will have to win over in order to beat POTUS are just too high- and apt to get even higher as the scrutiny of a national campaign is turned on a candidate with a knack for coming off as erratic.