Paul within one point of Newt in Iowa; Romney six points back

The latest poll here in Iowa has Ron Paul trailing Newt by only one point, with Romney five points in back of\the former Speaker. The negative ads Romney, Perry and Paul are running against Gingrich seem to be working, at least to a point.

Since Paul's army of extraterrestrials is generally acknowledged to be the best organization any of the candidates has here, this should be taken seriously. And nobody ever went broke betting on the...er,   ideologically unusual wing of the Iowa Republican party showing up in force on caucus night.

Romney, of course, is rooting for Paul if he himself can't finish first. Anything that can slow Gingrich's momentum is good news for Mitt, whose organization nationwide is the strongest and deepest. If he can survive the early going, Romney is the best positioned of the candidates for a long, drawn-out battle for the nomination. Romney's nightmare scenario is a quick knockout blow, with Gingrich winning in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida and finishing strong in New Hampshire, sucking the air out of Romney's sails and building a tsunami of momentum for Newt.

Paul's significance will diminish rapidly after Iowa even if he wins. His dovish isolationism and idiosyncratic economic beliefs are so far out of step with mainstream Republicans that even in an admittedly unpredictable year he seems unlikely to expand his small band of fanatical followers enough to seriously challenge for the nomination. But at the very least, he will play a major role in determining the story on caucus night.

HT: Drudge