My guess: South Carolina Republicans will vote for Obama today

The results won't be known for a few hours yet, but all indications are that the late surge by Newt Gingrich will overcome Mitt Romney's long-standing lead in South Carolina. The former speaker has apparently capitalized on a couple of strong debate performances at a time when Romney has been reeling from questions concerning his personal finances (no wrongdoing has been proven or even specifically suggested).

It should be noted that Speaker Gingrich has an approval rating nationally about twenty points lower than President Obama's. Governor Romney, on the other hand, as an approval rating about five or six points higher than the president. Gingrich- like Santorum and certainly Paul- is unelectable, and a vote for any of them is in effect a vote to re-elect Mr. Obama.

Nothing is certain. The ABC interview of Gingrich's second wife, Marianne, might still derail the former speaker in socially conservative South Carolina. But while momentum may be generated suddenly, it takes a little longer to bleed away. My guess is Gingrich tonight, by a narrow margin.

And Romney vs. Obama in November. The former Massachusetts governor is the Republican party's only option to conceding the election in advance by nominating one of the other three, none of whom would stand a chance.

The big question here is the impact South Carolina will have on Florida. Defeats in both states (coupled, of course, with the belated discovery that Rick Santorum, and not Gov. Romney, actually won the Iowa Caucuses) could well slow down the momentum with which the race has seemed to be moving toward an inevitable Romney nomination.

But I still don't think Mitt has reason to be worried.

ADDENDUM: It wasn't so narrow. And maybe now I'm just a little worried.

Naw. Bad Newt will sabotage Good Newt in the end. The former speaker is the Rex Grossman of Republican politics.