Obama retains one-point lead; thoughts on that "third party" stat

Figures for the Rasmussen Presidential Daily Tracking Poll for 5/24/12: Obama 45%, Romney 44%, Third Party 6%, Undecided 5%.

Meanwhile, the Gallup website has an interesting analysis of ten key factors in what is shaping up to be a very close election.

I'd be interested to know about that "third party" statistic. I suspect that it reflects support for Libertarian Gary Johnson among supporters of Ron Paul for the GOP nomination rather than for the nascent "centrist" third party that seems to be coalescing around New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The figure is consistently running in the 4-6% range.

If in fact it does represent defecting Republicans- as seems likely- there is a strong chance that it could throw the election to Obama. Johnson, of course, has no chance of being elected himself. But if you add that consistent 4 to 6% to Romney's totals, this is a very different race.