Model right for eight straight elections predicts Romney-Ryan victory

A method of predicting presidential elections which has correctly called the last eight of them forecasts the result this November as 320 electoral votes, and 52.9% of the popular vote, for the Romney-Ryan ticket, and 218 electoral votes, and 47.1%, for Obama and Biden.

The model predicts that Romney will carry virtually all of the "swing" states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

The system, developed at the University of Colorado, examines patterns from past elections in light of current economic conditions. It shows, U of C professors say, that a Democratic president's incumbency advantage disappears if the unemployment rate is over 5.6%.

Unemployment has been over eight percent for forty months. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office, says University of Colorado-Denver Professor Michael Berry. "What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

The study's authors say that theirs is the only model in use which predicts the electoral vote on a state-by-state level on the basis of economic metrics. They caution that very close states could theoretically fall in the opposite direction from what the model predicts.

The bottom line? University of Colorado-Boulder Professor Kenneth Bickers puts it this way: “Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble.”

HT: Drudge