Election Day Minus Eight: Battleground Poll predicts four-point Romney win
The bi-partisan Battleground Poll, which has a reputation as the most reliable of all, is predicting a 52%-47% victory a week from tomorrow for Mitt Romney.
Battleground's Ed Goess summarizes the race:
In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.
Today's RCP average has Romney at 47.6%, and Obama at 46.8%.
Gallup: Romney 51%, Obama 46%.
Rasmussen: Romney 49%. Obama 47%.
Pew Research: Romney 47%, Obama 47%.
ABC News/Washington Post: Romney 49%, Obama 49%.
Rasmussen Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48%.
Rasmussen says that Obama has a big lead among Ohio early voters, but that Romney has a big lead among those who will vote on election day.
Economist Robert Samuelson has an interesting article today on Obama's "flat-Earth" economics.
Real Clear Politics