At the moment, Angelo Cardinal Scola, the archbishop of Milan, is the favorite over at Paddy Power, at 3-1. I believe this is the first time that Peter Cardinal Turkson of Ghana has been displaced as the favorite. Cardinal Turkson is now second, at 7-2.
Tarciso Cardinal Bertone, Camerlengo and former Vatican Secretary of State, is third at 9-2. Odilo Cardinal Scherer of Brazil is next at 8-1, and Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouelette- an early favorite- has dropped to fifth at 10-1.
Last time, of course, the favorite won. But in the conclave before that, the cardinals defied centuries of tradition by electing a non-Italian, Cardinal Karol Wojtyla, as Pope John Paul II. Less than a year earlier they had elected a Venetian who had not been seen as one of the favorites, Cardinal Albino Luciani of Venice, as John Paul I.
There is a saying that "he who goes in (to the conclave) as pope comes out as a cardinal." Anything might happen.