If there's a surprise Monday night, it will be Rubio

Timothy Carney of the Washington Examiner has some interesting observations about that last Iowa Poll.

Trump's and Cruz's supporters are not persuadable. But Rubio has the most second-choice support of anybody- and everybody else's support seems fluid.

Carney stops short- as well he might- of predicting that Rubio will win or even finish second. But he observes that Marco has the highest "upside." If there are any surprises tomorrow night they will probably come from a better-than-expected performance by Rubio. And that could completely transform the race.

Another variable to keep in mind: Rubio has the lowest disapproval rating of anybody in the race.   All signs would seem to indicate that any late switches will probably go disproportionately Rubio's way.

And then, too... maybe there are more Iowa Republicans than we think who actually want to win this November.

HT: Real Clear Politics