It takes more than a little snow to slow down an Iowa Caucus

The weathermen predict a snowstorm in iowa just in time to mess with the Iowa Caucuses.

That's the good news for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and the rest of us not taken in by Donald Trump.

The bad news is that it doesn't look like anything Iowans aren't going to take in stride, and in any case will probably come to late to have any real effect.

Still, anything that holds the turnout down is bad news for Trump. The virulent brain-eating Trump virus that has infected much of the country is spreading here in Iowa as well, and the polls currently predict a Trump victory powered by an unprecedented avalanche of first-time caucus-goers similar to that which swung Iowa to Barack Obama in 2008. Bad weather might cut into it.

We shall see. Of course, there's another variable: bad weather favors the most motivated caucus-goers, a fact which has combined with the general extremism of Iowa voters to give an extra advantage to the tinfoil hat crowd in election after election. As far as I know, medical science has yet to determine the degree to which the Trump virus affects a victim's reaction to snow.

My guess, though, is that storm isn't going to have much of an effect. The egomaniac will win comfortably. The True Believers will bring Cruz in second, and I'm reasonably confident that enough Iowa Republicans actually want to win in November that Rubio will come in a respectable third, and maybe even give Cruz a run for his money.


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