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Rolling the dice with America's future: the Nevada Republican Caucuses

With all of the returns from the Nevada Caucuses in, here's the final result:
1. Trump 45.9%
2. Rubio 23.9%
3. Cruz 21.4%
4. Carson 4.8%
5. Kasich 3.6%
6. Paul 0.2%
7. Bush 0.1%
8. Christie 0.1%

Paul, Bush and  Christie have withdrawn.

Delegates: Trump 12; Rubio 5; Cruz 5

The good news: Rubio has once again finished ahead of Cruz, who- if he doesn't do very well in early March in the southern states he sees as his firewall, will have to ask serious questions about whether he has a realistic path to the nomination.

The bad news: Trump exceeded his normal 31%-35% of the vote, although in Nevada he's almost a "favorite son" and this probably shouldn't be taken too seriously. If he starts doing it again on March 1, everything we thought we knew about Trump and the mental health of the Republican rank-and-file will have to be called into question. And it will become much harder to imagine Rubio either catching Trump in the delegate count once Cruz and Kasich drop out or the more likely scenario of Trump being prevented from going to Cleveland with a majority of the delegates, resulting in a brokered convention which would nominate either Rubio or, more likely,  a dark horse.


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