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Some final thoughts before going to war

Here's a post on tonight's likely outcome from Henry Olsen at National Review that sounds about right.

Marco is making his move. I still think beating Cruz for second place is unlikely, but for the first time, I'm getting the feeling that it's distinctly possible. I'm feeling optimistic about Marco exceeding expectations anyway, and maybe getting to 20%.  He's the strongest electable candidate, and I have a hunch that a lot of undecided voters are going to end up choosing him. Anybody who was going to pick Trump or Cruz already has done so.

Several commentators have made the point that Iowa is make-or-break for Cruz. If Trump blows him out, or Rubio finishes ahead of him, Ted may be finished.

 I also suspect that several of the other candidates, who are obviously not going anywhere, are going to hemorrhage support to Marco. As the article above suggests, if there's an "Iowa Cyclone" this year, it's likely Marco. There is, in any case, a feeling of optimism in the Rubio campaign, How far that's justified we won't know, of course, until tonight.

As the article suggests, Marco should do well here in Polk County and in surrounding areas. I may get a very early clue as to how things are going to go statewide from how my own precinct goes.

Again, I'll be going from the caucus to the Marriott for the Rubio victory party. When I get home from there, I'll blog my impressions of what happened  here in Des Moines 55 and in the rest of Iowa.


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