Skip to main content

The last New Hampshire poll

That said, the final ARG poll in New Hampshire shows Trump 33, Kasich 17, Rubio 14, Cruz 10, Bush 9, Christie 8, Fiorina 3, Carson 1. The margin of error is five points.

Which means that the only certainty tonight is that Il Duce will win. Almost anything could happen in the really significant area, the centrist lane. If things were to turn out exactly the way the poll predicts, it would be fine for Marco; as long as he finishes ahead of Bush and Christie he remains the favorite to emerge as the candidate of the sane wing of the party. Finishing ahead of Cruz would be a bonus.

But I expect some departures from the race tonight, or tomorrow. Barring a huge surprise, there doesn't seem to be much point of either Fiorina or Carson going on, and unless they manage a fairly solid showing Bush and Christie will have to start thinking of folding their tents. Bush is the stronger of the two long term; Christie, like Kasich, will probably have his best showing in New Hampshire, and things will go downhill from there.

Bush could probably survive the scenario the poll portrays, finishing a relatively solid fifth only a point behind Cruz. But he'd be on life support. I'm not sure Christie will still be in the race tomorrow.

As we head for South Carolina and ultimately Super Tuesday on March 1, Trump will obviously bear watching. So, too, will the respective placings of Cruz and Rubio- and, of course, how quickly Bush, Christie, and to a lesser extent Kasich get out of the race. One thing is certain: the so-called "establishment" wing of the party has to settle on its candidate before Trump builds up so much momentum that he can't be stopped.

I still don't believe that the rank-and-file of the Republican party nationally are such idiots that they would pick Il Duce as their nominee. If they do, I'm not sure the GOP will be worth salvaging. Certainly its brand will be damaged for the foreseeable future, and belonging to it would thereafter be an embarrassment for anybody with both intelligence and self-respect.

And things are far from hopeless. All things being equal, if only one "establishment lane" candidate was in the race in New Hampshire and he got all the votes of the other "establishment candidates," he'd beat Trump by 11 points.

That can happen down the road- but not until the centrist vote stops being split five ways.

HT: Real Clear Politics


Popular posts from this blog

McMullin, Kasich, Hickenlooper, Huntsman, or somebody else sane in 2020!

I don't expect to be disenfranchised in 2020. I'm looking forward to Evan McMullin running against President Trump and whatever left-wing extremist the Democrats nominate. McMullin may or may not run for the Senate next year, and he may or may not run for president as an independent again next time around, but the nation can't afford to lose its most eloquent and intelligent critic of the populist takeover of the Republican party and the Executive Branch. We need the man in public life.

But interesting alternatives have developed. Ohio Gov. John Kasich has been mentioned as a potential primary challenger for Mr. Trump. I hope somebody continues the fight for the soul of my former party, even though I believe it to be a lost cause. Entrepreneur Mark Cuban is reportedly also considering a challenge to Mr. Trump. While I tend to see him at this point as somewhere to the left of where a candidate I would feel comfortable supporting might be, I would wish him well. Still, I see…

A modest proposal for a shocking innovation which is completely within the rules but which would, if adopted, revolutionize college football

I call it defense.

The idea- crazy as it may sound- is to supplement the scoring of points by your offense with an attempt to stop the other team from scoring them. Yeah, I know.  Really "out there," isn't it? But it has a history of winning not only games but championships. Modern college teams should try it more.

I'm a bit bummed about the Rose Bowl outcome but amused by the score. It seems that certain conferences aren't sure whether they're playing college football or high school basketball! I've noticed that in the scores of Sooner games. Last season the nation's college teams set a record by scoring an average of slightly more than 30 points each per game. That's a lot. Historically, that's a REAL lot.

The final score of the Rose Bowl was 54-48, though to be fair that was in double overtime. But to get there, the teams had to be tied 45-45 at the end of regulation! Last year was even worse. Southern Cal beat Penn State 52-49- in regulat…

Reflections on the present and future of my Blackhawks

As this season from hell creeps to its close at an excruciating pace and makes all of us devote more of our attention to spring training for the Cubs than we otherwise might, there are calls for the heads of Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman and even the greatest coach in Blackhawks history, Joel Quenneville.

No general manager or coach could have made Marian Hossa and Corey Crawford healthy or prevented Toews and Keith and Saad from having the worst seasons of their careers or foreseen that a series of trades most of which made perfect sense at the time wouldn't pan out. The Hawks are one season removed from the second-best regular season in their history. This will be the first time in a decade that they haven't made the playoffs.

With the exception of the Pens, maybe the Kings and (for different reasons) the Golden Knights, every other team in the NHL would kill to have won three Stanley Cups in the past decade. In fact, only the Hawks, the Pens, the Kings, the Wings, and the Brui…