Skip to main content

So where do we go from Cleveland?

Ross Douthat herein lays out the various possible scenarios for Trumpism after November.

He'ls less pessimistic in some ways than I am. He thinks the GOP may survive in a perpetual state of civil war,   or else suffer a merely tmporary schism. He is probably right in saying, as I observed yesterday, that the breakup of the Republican party would probably mean a generation of Democratic governance, just as the split of the Canadian Progressive Conservatives and the Reform party led to a decade of Liberal governments, and ended only with their reunion into the present Conservative party.

But there is no way that a Trumpista-lead GOP will ever win an election in any case, and I very much suspect that the same is true of a Republican party lead by the Cruz faction. We much-despised Center Right Republicans, scorned by Trumpista and Cruzite alike as 'the Establishment," remain the only faction (admittedly only in coalition with the Tea Party wing) which can both put together a large enough base coupled with sufficient attractiveness to independents to win.  And the centrists would have to be the senior partner; a Kasich-Cruz ticket would probably win this November. A Cruz-Kasich ticket won't.

In short, if the Republican party does have a future after this year, it's going to be on pretty much the same basis that it's done business in previous years. It's not a question of the "Establishment" hogging the power; that's simply the only basis on which victory for an American right-of-center party can be won.

It will, of course, have to be a humbled and chastened "Establishment," more attentive to the base and more zealous for the party agenda. That might happen relatively quickly. But it may take a massive defeat for Cruz before the Republican Right gives up the illusion that conservative orthodoxy is the route to victory in this particular society, or that McCain lost because the Republicans had already been in the White House for two terms and Romney because he was running against an incumbent rather than because either ran particularly bad races or were insufficiently right wing for the electorate.

Alas, if there's any lesson to be learned from this most bizarre of election years, it's that both the Trumpista populists and the Cruzite movement conservatives are fed up with being junior partners in a party led by the "Establishment." Until and unless that changes, I fear that we're going to have Democrats in the White House for a very, very long time.

And it's not going to happen in time to beat Hillary.

HT: Real Clear Politics


Popular posts from this blog

Jan Chamberlain's rhetoric is too strong. But the stand she has taken is right.

I do not share the religion of Jan Chamberlain. I don't even pray to the same god. But I can't help but admire the integrity of the woman who quit the Mormon Tabernacle Choir rather than sing at Donald Trump's inauguration.

Ms. Chamberlain, like me, voted for Evan McMullin in November. Like me, she holds no brief for Hillary Clinton or her agenda. But she cannot, as she put it, "throw roses at Hitler."

As I've said before, comparing Trump to Hitler strikes me as harsh. I believe that Trump is a power-hungry narcissist who exhibits disturbing signs of psychopathy, like Hitler. Like Hitler, he has stigmatized  defenseless minorities- Muslims and undocumented aliens, rather than Jews- and made them scapegoats for the nation's troubles. Like Hitler, he has ridden a wave of irrational hatred and emotion to power. Like Hitler's, his agenda foreshadows disaster for the nation he has been chosen to lead.

But he's not going to set up death camps for Musli…

Neither Evan McMullin nor his movement are going away

Evan McMullin has devoted most of his post-college life- even to the point of foregoing marriage and a family- to fighting ISIS and al Qaeda and our nation's deadliest enemies as a clandestine officer for the CIA. He has done so at the risk of his life.

He has seen authoritarianism in action close-up. One of his main jobs overseas was to locate and facilitate the elimination of jihadist warlords. Evan McMullin knows authoritarians.

And when he looks at Donald Trump, what he sees is an authoritarian like the ones he fought overseas. He knows Donald Trump. After leaving the CIA he served as policy director for the Republican majority in the United States House of Representatives. He tells about his first encounter with The Donald in that role in this opinion piece he wrote for today's New York Times.

In fact, when Mitt Romney and Tom Coburn and all the others who were recruited to run as a conservative third-party candidate against Trump and Hillary Clinton backed out,  McMulli…

Huzzah! Once again, 45 does something majorly right!

First. he appointed Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, and now 45 has- at long last- initiated a sensible space policy, with a plan to promote a "rapid and affordable" return to the moon carried out by private enterprise by 2020.  Afterward, it will be onward to Mars and beyond.

This is a great idea for three reasons. First, private enterprise is the future of space exploration, and as far as I know we will be the first spacefaring nation to put most of its eggs in that basket. Second, it's nice to have eggs! Since the Obama administration canceled the Constellation program to develop the Ares booster and the Orion crew vehicle (though it subsequently reinstated the Orion part of the program), the United States has been twiddling its thumbs while China has taken great leaps toward the moon and other countries- including Russia, India, and Japan- have to various degrees intensified their own space programs. It would be both tragic and foolhardy for the nation which first…