Non-partisan analysts see Trump nomination worth 11 states to the Democrats

The Cook Political Report has shifted Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin from "toss-up" states to "likely Democratic," Missouri and Indiana from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican," New Mexico from "likely Democratic" to "solidly Democratic," and North Carolina from "likely Republican" to "toss-up" due to the likely nomination of Donald Trump by the Republicans at their Cleveland convention in July.

"Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans," a Cook analyst says, "Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate- women, millennials, independents and Latinos- make him the initial November underdog."

That the Trump nomination would turn an otherwise nearly certain Republican victory into a likely defeat has been obvious to all but the lemming-like Republican rank-and-file ever since the campaign began. But I think Cook is being overly cautious- and overly generous- in merely describing Trump as "the initial November underdog."

It will take a miracle for an incompetent, massively ignorant, and undisciplined lightweight like Trump to defeat the savvy (if evil) Clinton. And the Democratic attack machine will make mincemeat out of Trump. I'm thinking something in the Goldwater/McGovern range.


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