The dimensions of the coming Republican disaster

I've remarked before about the absurdity of the states the standard Real Clear Politics Electoral College map rates as "toss-ups." No matter what the polls say at the moment, there is no way in this galaxy that Hillary Clinton is not going to carry Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, all of which are listed as s "toss-ups." Neither are such take-it-to-the-bank Clinton states as New Jersey, Connecticut, Minnesota and Oregon merely "leaning" Democratic!

However, if you check the box marked "no toss-ups," you get what I think is a pretty good idea of how the election is likely to go- although I still think it's a bit optimistic from the Trump point of view. The result, with 270 electoral votes needed to win, is Clinton 342, Trump 196.

Something on the order of Lyndon Johnson's victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964, in which the Democrat carried 44 states, is unlikely. But I expect the result to be somewhere in between that and the "no-tossups" map at RCP.

I also think the Democrats flip the Senate and probably the House,

Thanks heaps, Trumpsters.


Popular Posts