Nate Silver says that Trump is now slightly less unlikely to catch Hillary

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight notes some slight gains for Trump in the past couple of weeks. Its estimate of Trump's chances of being elected has risen from 11% to 19%.

Silver notes that this election is in some ways the opposite of the one in 2012, which was close throughout much of the campaign but pretty much in the bag for Obama when factors other than the polls were considered. This race is not close, but Silver regards it as nevertheless "uncertain-" meaning that the potential exists for volatile changes.

In other words, it's too early for Hillary to "run out the clock." But that doesn't mean the Alt-Right crowd should be shopping for matching tuxedo and tinfoil hat ensembles for Trump's inauguration. The chances of Hillary actually blowing her lead remain remote.

Remember, she's running against a guy who puts his foot in his mouth pretty much every time he opens it.

Picture: DonkeyHotey


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