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Trump gains in the polls, but he's still going to lose

Donald Trump is on the rebound in the polls, but whether you look at his polls-only forecast or his polls-plus-analysis forecast,  Nate Silver still gives Hillary better than a two-to-one chance of beating Trump.

If the election were held today, Five Thirty Eight would give Hillary a 72.3 percent chance of winning. And, of course, 100 percent of the voters would be very surprised.

Concerns about Hillary's health have doubtless helped Trump. But Trump is still Trump- and he scares people.

The Donald continues to underperform Mitt Romney among whites with a college education and outperform him among whites without one. No surprise there. But the bottom line is that Trump is simply not attracting enough white voters to win.

It's the old story: the GOP nominated the one unelectable candidate on that debate stage- and unelectable candidates tend not to get elected. Which will not, of course, prevent Trump's supporters for blaming those who couldn't go along with their outrageous choice for the fact that they themselves made it.

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