Mr. Keuchel goes out on a cracked and fragile limb

Last Fall during the NLCS Los Angeles manager Davey Johnson wrote on the blackboard of the Dodgers' clubhouse, "END THE CUBS." They didn't, by a long shot; with a few misgivings, I like our chances this year. But they did a pretty thorough job of cleaning our clocks. Anyway, I want us to end the Dodgers this year. And I want it bad.

There's another team that may need "ending:" the closest analogy to the Cubs in MLB and their successors as world champions, the Houston Astros. The other day Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel was asked about the World Series hangover which is generally regarded as one reason why we "only" got to the NLCS last year rather than repeating as champs. "We're not the Cubs," he replied. "I firmly believe we have better players."

Them's fightin' words, son. You're entitled to your opinion, of course. No, you aren't the Cubs. You're the Astros. I'm glad you're clear on that point. But you, too, will suffer a slump this season, and you are unlikely to repeat as world champions.

Nobody has done that since the Yankees did at the turn of the century. The Blue Jays did it in 1992 and 1993. The Reds did it in 1975 and 1976.The A's did it in 1972, 1973, and 1974. The Yankees did it in 1961 and 1962. They also did it in 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, and 1953,

Get the picture? Every few years a juggernaut arises in major league baseball and there is talk of a dynasty. But in baseball, as in all the other major sports in which the profit motive has dictated a far longer season than the human body is meant to accommodate, the term "dynasty" has a different definition than it used to.

Only six times in my 67 years on this planet has any team repeated as world champions. I doubt that we will ever see another team dominate like the Yankees did in the last three years of the last millennium, and the early 'Sixties, and the first three years of my life; or like the A's and Reds did in the 'Seventies. Possibly once each decade a team will win the World Series in consecutive years. although it will probably be a little less frequent than that.

This is no knock on the 'Sros, who are indeed an awesome baseball team that will be a "dynasty" in the sense of contending for the world championship and sometimes winning for a long time to come. Just like the Cubs. But I really doubt that Houston will win the World Series this year.

Now, I don't know why teams that reach the LCS shouldn't have a similar "off year" the next season; it's only a maximum of seven more games that world champions and runners-up play. But the wear-and-tear of an interminable season in modern professional sports makes what used to be difficult but doable in a maximum of 161 games all but impossible in an era in which a world champion who goes to the limit in each post-season series will end up playing 179.  Baseball's eternal post-season has already leached much of the drama out of the World Series. It also seems to have pushed the season past a wall after which human endurance begins to fail and excellence begins to fade. And it often takes a full season to recover from it.

Even in the old days of two, eight-team leagues, world championship repeats were rare. They're a lot rarer now. After all, it's been eighteen years. As to the Astros having "better players" than the Cubs... well, suffice it to say that I disagree. And especially given Kuechel's remarks, I would find it very satisfying indeed for the Cubs to beat the Dodgers for the National League pennant and the Astros in the World Series.

That is if the Astros even get to the World Series. Which I doubt.