Is Putin all that is keeping Russia in business?

So now that the Reagan-Gorbachev arms control agreement the Russians have been cheating on all along is close to officially being toast, and yet another American election is approaching for the FSB to meddle in, and even President Trump is beginning to get a little annoyed with his buddy Vlad Putin, what are we going to do about Russia?

Maybe...nothing?

Here is an interesting article by a man with the credentials which give him the right to a hearing and who claims that it is only the personality of Vladimir Putin that is holding Russia together right now and that when he vanishes from the scene what is left will cease to be much of a player on the world stage.

Separatism among ethnic minorities, the lack of a coherent, unifying ideology, and the realities of Russian economic and intellectual life, Professor Peter Eltsov of the National Defense University suggests, are all centripetal forces threatening Putin's vision of a return to the power and greatness Russia knew under the Soviet Union and may in the future even deny it the status of the late Romanov Empire. China continues to remain a formidable opponent, as President Trump is learning to his political cost; his trade war may well play a key role in denying him a second term. India is growing in prominence on the world stage, and Japan remains a formidable player.

The United States plays a role somewhat diminished from what it played in the past. Its prestige will likely increase once President Trump leaves office and is succeeded by someone the world and its leaders will be able to take more seriously.  Putin will doubtless still be in power for years to come. Russia is a nation without a democratic tradition and which has always had an essentially authoritarian nature, and Putin seems unlikely to face any electoral threat as long as he retains his personal popularity. There seems no particular reason why he shouldn't.

He's 66 years old, and may well be able to hang on to power for a long time. But nobody lives forever, and whether it's death or incapacity or some development we cannot foresee, Putin's dominating and animating presence on the Russian political scene will only go on for so long. If Professor Eltsov is correct, when Putin goes, Russia will begin to disintegrate as a player on the world scene.

Anticipating that can have a major impact on how we view Russia in the long term, and on how we interact with it in the meantime.  If Putin's personality is really what is holding Russia together and keeping it relatively strong, that's an important fact for President Trump and his successor(s) to bear in mind in coming years. After all, we know from recent history how easily even apparently formidable political arrangements can fall apart in that fascinating and puzzling nation.